20 October 2023

Overnight the Conservatives suffered defeat in two by-elections at the hands of Labour in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, overturning large Tory majorities in an unprecedented night in British politics. The results further reinforce Labour’s dominant position in the polls and mark an impressive few weeks for Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, who also led his party to success in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election two weeks ago.

For the Conservatives, these historic results are prompting conversation on whether Rishi Sunak’s approach is the right one, given his net zero pivot and his party conference speech seemed to have had little impact. Two successive losses could hasten Rishi Sunak’s reset in advance of the State Opening of Parliament and Autumn Statement next month.

Despite a good dollop of expectation management, it was a crushing night for the Conservatives, who suffered their worst by-election night in history. The Labour Party overturned the largest majority in raw number of votes in Mid Bedfordshire and achieved their second biggest-ever swing against the Conservatives in Tamworth.

On the other hand, in both by-elections, turnout was markedly down, which isn’t uncommon in mid-Parliament polls, although it does reinforce the view that neither party is doing enough to drag its own voters to the polls. This could benefit the Conservatives at a general election, seeing as  should traditional Tory voters decide to cast a ballot at all they are likely to stick with the party of government. Expect more rumblings from Tory backbenchers calling for tax cuts to motivate their base to turn out at the polls in the weeks and months ahead.

The success of Reform in Tamworth is also worth noting, with the Tories potentially suffering a pincer movement from both left and right in those Leave-voting seats in the North and the Midlands, although they could yet be squeezed during the course of a five-week general election campaign.

What lessons can we learn from these elections?

We should never try and extrapolate too much from individual election results, especially while we’re still probably 12 months out of an election. On the other hand, the respected psephologist Professor Sir John Curtice noted that “there are no silver linings” for the Tories, unlike in the summer when the party unexpectedly held on to Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Additionally, with Labour increasing its share of the vote despite a strong challenge by the Liberal Democrats in Mid Bedfordshire suggests they are not simply riding the protest vote wave, but are capturing switchers that they will need to hold on to in order to take the keys of Number 10 off Rishi Sunak.

As ever, the West Midlands will be a key battleground for the next election. It is too simplistic to say so goes the West Midlands so does the country, but a region that handed the majority of its seats to Labour in 1997 and backed Brexit in 2016 underscores the constantly changing shift in political dynamics in the region. In Tamworth, the Conservatives were all but wiped out in the local elections this year and have now lost the area’s Parliamentary seat. The result leaves the Government needing a significant recovery in the polls, not just to prohibit the now likely Labour majority in the next General Election, but to recover to respectability and avoid a result that could be the worst Conservative Party performance of the post-war era.

For the Labour Party, the last three weeks could hardly have gone any better. First the win in Rutherglen reaffirmed the party’s belief they are making a comeback in Scotland and now two wins in England are edging the party ever close to power. The only thing now will be to maintain the momentum, not get carried away and be prepared to respond to a potential policy shift by the Conservatives.

For our full analysis on Labour’s Conference, its policy proposals and what they mean for business, get in touch.