Reaction to the Darzi Report
by Emma Turnbull, Health Director
16 September 2024
Lord Darzi’s report made a splash last week with his, and subsequently Keir Starmer’s, description of the NHS as a patient in critical condition dominating the front pages and broadcast media. It was nothing short of a political hand grenade chastising years of Conservative stewardship of the NHS. Austerity and its consequences for capital investment alongside Lansley’s reforms in 2012 were, suggests Darzi, responsible for drastically impacting the UK’s response to COVID-19 and will impact our nation’s health for years to come.
In the third month since the General Election, Labour continues to work hard to land their key message that the Conservatives broke Britain and within that larger picture, the NHS. It’s a message they will continue to hammer home in the run-up to the Budget and we can expect Health Secretary Wes Streeting to go hard on the Darzi Report’s findings in his Labour Party conference speech next week.
Labour’s narrative: public health and prevention
But what happens beyond that? The fast-moving pace of our media, and the public stake in this sector, is such that as soon as Darzi’s report diagnosed the problems, articles started emerging focused on what the solutions might be. Very quickly a narrative set in around public health and prevention, perhaps because coincidentally, a government consultation response on the 9pm watershed for junk food advertising was published on the same day as the Darzi Report.
Whilst we know prevention and public health is central to Labour’s health policy approach, it is no silver bullet. Darzi also believes that moving care from hospital to community settings and transitioning the NHS technologically speaking – from analogue to digital – must be prioritised with equal vigour.
The Government’s 10 Year Plan for NHS recovery and reform will focus on these themes and lay out the roadmap for NHS recovery. Darzi has made clear that repairing the NHS is a marathon, not a sprint and the plan for the recovery won’t be published until the spring. In the meantime, the Government has a lot of work to do to prepare our health service and key stakeholders like the British Medical Association, which have historically been resistant to change, for the reform that is to come.
How does the Darzi Report align into the Government’s wider plans?
For avid health policy wonks, the question will be where the Government’s Mission Delivery Board fits into this picture. In principle, it’s an excellent idea for driving change and joining up thinking between Government Departments particularly on public health and prevention. But we still don’t know the extent to which the 10 Year NHS Plan will influence the work of the Mission Delivery Board or all the names of people who will be responsible for its various workstreams.
Given that there’s so much in flux, the question I have is whether sound Government communications will be enough to manage the expectations of a population that voted for change, and much like consumers who’ve paid for a service, expect to see the difference quickly. For now the answer is maybe. So much depends on whether Labour works in partnership with sector stakeholders on the 10 Year Plan and thereafter, as well as the extent to which political opponents hold them to account in Parliament and through the media.
Get in touch to discuss the Darzi Report and any other healthcare related issues.
27 August 2024
The central mission of the first Labour Government in 14 years is to achieve the highest sustained growth in the G7. Throughout its first few weeks, the new administration has signalled the financial services industry will be crucial in achieving its objectives.
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25 July 2024
The Government has today officially launched its flagship energy policy, Great British (GB) Energy, introducing the Great British Energy Bill to Parliament. The Government has also announced GB Energy’s first major partnership with the Crown Estate.
Speaking at its launch in Cheshire, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the agreement with the Crown Estate would “drive up to £60bn in investment into the sector”, while the Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband said that “investing in clean power is the route to end the UK’s energy insecurity”.
Read our primer on GB Energy: “Decarbonising Great Britain”
Top-line summary of GB Energy
The launch of GB Energy is a pivotal moment in the early days of the Labour Government, as the Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeks to set out a credible plan to deliver the Government’s ambitious target to decarbonise the power sector by 2030.
The GB Energy Bill is the first piece of legislation from the King’s Speech to be introduced to Parliament and is at the heart of the new Government’s agenda, leading one of the Prime Minister’s five national missions.
The Bill confirms that GB Energy will “own, manage and operate” clean energy assets, akin to EDF in France or Orsted in Denmark, a source of initial confusion within industry. It will also play a central role de-risking and unlocking capital for the private sector.
Starmer and Miliband are keen for its speedy implementation and set out the next steps to place GB Energy on a delivery footing. Juergen Maier has been confirmed as the Chair and will now undertake a period of stakeholder engagement to inform its policy approach. An announcement on its location in Scotland is expected shortly.
The partnership with the Crown Estate was teased at the King’s Speech, with the Crown Estate Bill also being introduced to Parliament today. The Crown Estate which owns and manages the seabed, will co-invest in new technology and lease land to GB Energy to lead on preparatory work for the private sector, including coordinating grid connections, environmental surveys and planning. This is an attempt to speed up the delivery of offshore sites and provide industry with shovel-ready land for projects.
Three key takeaways on today’s energy policy announcement
- Crown Estate partnership could provide fiscal room for manoeuvre: Capitalised with an initial £8.3bn throughout its first Parliamentary term, the Chancellor’s fiscal rules have resulted in some of the initial ambition being scaled back for GB Energy. This has caused some scepticism within industry circles about whether it can establish itself as a serious player within one parliament. The Crown Estate Bill widens the Estate’s investment powers and gives it the power to borrow money to invest. While the longer-term ambition is for GB Energy to be a self-sustaining entity that can in time contribute to the public purse, this may allow for greater financial wiggle room in the short-term to kickstart the clean energy rollout.
- Selling GB Energy to the public: Decarbonising the power sector by 2030 will require a significant increase in the rate of renewable technology being deployed across the UK. While Miliband has so far shown a willingness to rubber stamp projects, an important part of the puzzle will also be to sell renewable energy to the public. The NIMBY movement is well-organised and has proved a thorn in the side of many projects up and down the country, as well as attracting criticism from backbench MPs in rural constituencies. GB Energy will be an important branding exercise for the Government, with union flags and images of the crown expected on new infrastructure, supporting the Government to rebadge GB Energy as a national, patriotic mission.
- The work starts here: Incoming Chair Juergen Maier and Miliband will have quite the in-tray with expectations that GB Energy will hit the ground running. They will need to announce the final location, start to recruit for key roles and establish an operating model. They will also need to undertake extensive industry engagement. There are also underappreciated aspects of the policy puzzle that need to be addressed to decarbonise the power network, including grid connections, greater whole-system planning and the rollout of grid infrastructure. Beyond having to establish a publicly owned energy company, the Department will also have to address important legacy issues including the next round of CfD auctions (AR6), the ongoing Review of the Electricity Markets Arrangements, discussions over Sizewell C, legal challenges over Rosebank and COP29.
To understand more about the Government’s energy priorities, read out Decarbonising Great Britain primer or get in touch with our team.
16 July 2024
The key figures expanding the Treasury’s influence
Rachel Reeves’ first major speech as Chancellor was notable not only for the announcements that were made, but for where they were being announced. A consultation on significant changes to national planning policy – an issue that traditionally would sit squarely with the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) – was unveiled in the Treasury by the Chancellor on 8 July, not MHCLG Secretary of State Angela Rayner.
The following day, details on how energy infrastructure would be funded came not from Energy Secretary Ed Miliband alone, but from Miliband and the Chancellor as they convened the first meeting of the National Wealth Fund Taskforce at No 11. Taking ownership of key announcements in the Government’s first week suggests a Chancellor who wants to have her hand on all the policy levers that can affect growth, regardless of whether there is a nexus in another Department or Cabinet colleague’s brief.
The incoming Government’s central mission is to grow the economy. The Chancellor’s Ministerial and Special Advisor appointments make it clear that mission is going to be driven and delivered by HM Treasury..
To read our full analysis including full profiles of Treasury Ministers and Special Advisors, please enter your details below:
2 July 2024
As we enter the last 48 hours of the election campaign, polling suggests we may see historically low turnout, with limited enthusiasm from voters for any of the parties on offer. What seems to be cutting through the general apathy is a desire for change and the removal of the Conservatives from Government. To that end, more voters than ever appear to be thinking strategically about how they cast their ballot and turning to tactical voting.
What is tactical voting?
Tactical voting is a strategy used by voters to maximise the impact of their vote, usually to prevent another candidate from winning. This works by voters offering their support to the party that is most likely to beat the undesired candidate.
For instance, if a Liberal Democrat supporter in a Conservative/Labour marginal wanted to prevent the Conservative candidate from winning, they would lend their vote to the Labour Party to maximise the chances of keeping the Conservatives out.
What influence could tactical voting have in the 2024 election?
Despite the predicted scale of a Labour majority, the large swing of vote share means that many voters who have long been in ‘safe’ seats now find themselves voting in a tight race. Those in previously safe Conservative seats may have felt free to vote for third parties in the past in the knowledge that tactical voting would have little impact. However, at this election, the chance of beating the Conservatives seems very real in many seats which may persuade people to vote tactically for whoever has the best chance at beating the Tories, whether they be Labour, SNP or Liberal Democrat.
What does the polling say?
Polling from YouGov has shown that 33% of voters are intending to vote tactically to stop the party they like the least from winning, up from 19% in 2019. When broken down to which party they like the least, 70% said the Conservatives, with only 26% saying Labour. The overwhelming majority of tactical voting at this election is expected to prevent another Conservative term in Government.
Of those voting tactically, 46% are choosing Labour over the Conservatives and 28% are choosing the Liberal Democrats over them too. 82% of Remain voters and even 43% of Leave voters who plan to vote tactically said they would do so to try and stop the Conservatives from winning. On the right, there also appears to be more enthusiasm for Reform UK than the Conservatives. Of those who will be voting for their first choice of party, 25% are supporting Reform UK, with only 19% supporting the Tories as their first choice.
What is the connection between tactical voting and the Liberal Democrats?
An interesting story emerging from the polling numbers is the level of tactical voting among Liberal Democrat supporters. 46% of 2019 Lib Dem voters have said they will vote tactically at this election, with 87% of those voting against the Tories. In addition, 53% of those who say they will vote for the Liberal Democrats in 2024 are doing so for tactical reasons.
How are different demographic groups voting?
When looking at demographic breakdowns, there is a clear trend of younger voters being more likely to vote tactically, and older voters being more likely to back their favourite party. Among 18-24 year-olds, 38% say they will vote tactically, with 91% of those doing so to prevent a Conservative candidate from being elected, indicating a potential dissatisfaction with policies like national service from the Tories.
The level of tactical voting amongst younger people could be attributed to online campaigns by organisations including Best for Britain and Stop the Tories. However, even amongst the over 65 age group, 28% are voting tactically with 43% of those doing so against the Tories, suggesting that dissatisfaction with the Government has penetrated even their largest voter group.
Conclusion
If tactical voting succeeds on Thursday, many high-profile Conservatives could be vulnerable. Current polling suggests a worst-case scenario for the Conservatives could be a seat count as low as 57.
1906, 1945 and 1997 all saw landslide defeats from the Conservatives, at the hands of co-ordinated anti-Tory coalitions. In 2024, tactical voting could play a bigger role than ever, with individual efforts and coordinated campaigns working towards ousting them, ultimately playing a potentially significant role in a Labour victory.
Visit our Elections ’24 microsite for the latest on polling and election analysis, up to election day and beyond.
28 June 2024
There is now less than a week to go until the 2024 General Election which is widely expected to usher in a change of Government for the first time in 14 years. Having entrenched a 20-point lead over their Conservative rivals in the national polls, Labour is anticipated to be the next party of Government, with Keir Starmer at the helm as the likely next Prime Minister.
As with any General Election, the ultimate result will hinge on the outcomes of a series of local electoral battles in 650 parliamentary constituencies across the country. Labour must win the majority of those fights if it is to go on to form a government.
The H/Advisors Cicero team has picked five key seats to watch that could shape the national picture.
Cannock Chase
There are 55 ”bellwether” constituencies across the country, one of which includes Cannock Chase in Staffordshire. Whilst voting margins tend to be narrow in “bellwether seats”, a reflection of the electorate’s tendency to switch allegiance at pace, Cannock Chase is notable for the scale of its Conservative majority. The incumbent, Amanda Milling, has grown a relatively slim 5,000 vote majority in 2015 to an impressive 20,000 vote majority in 2019. A nervous Labour will be hoping for a clean sweep across those indicative “bellwether” seats to reassure them of their path to power, but Milling’s clear local popularity could present them with a potential challenge in Cannock Chase. For now, however, Labour has pulled ahead according latest MRP polling for the seat.
Worthing West
Historically, voting in Worthing West has been notoriously consistent. In stark contrast to nearby Brighton Pavilion, which became the first parliamentary constituency to elect a Green Party MP in 2010 after periods of representation by both Labour and the Conservatives, voters in Worthing West have remained loyal to the Conservative MP, Peter Bottomley, since 1997 when the seat was first created.
Bottomley (who is standing again 50 years on from his first election in Woolwich West) is defending a healthy majority of almost 15,000 votes but has found himself facing unprecedented levels of support for the Labour candidate, Rebecca Cooper, who is campaigning hard on local issues and leaning into frustration on issues such as water quality and sewage in this coastal constituency. Latest MRP polling by YouGov suggests it could be third time lucky for Cooper who came second to Bottomley in 2017 and 2019. A loss in a historically loyal seat with a large majority would deal a heavy blow to the Conservatives who must retain as many existing Tory safe seats as possible if they are to fend off a Labour super majority.
Bishop Auckland
Looking back, perhaps the most significant development at the 2019 election was the fall of the so-called “Red Wall”, the swathe of seats in the North of England that turned from red to blue in large part due to the electoral allure and anti-EU rhetoric of former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. For Keir Starmer, regaining the “Red Wall” is a strategic and reputational priority. Bishop Auckland is amongst the seats that his activists are targeting. In 2019, the Conservatives overturned 100 years of Labour representation there to secure an impressive 8,000 vote majority. But whilst the Conservatives possess a numerical advantage, the resignation of the popular Tory incumbent, Dehenna Davidson, will likely work in Labour’s favour. Polling is currently predicting a return to a Labour majority.
Godalming and Ash
Godalming and Ash, the successor seat to the former South West Surrey constituency, will be one of the most keenly watched seats on election night. Notwithstanding its high-profile incumbent Jeremy Hunt who has been the MP for South West Surrey since 2005, the seat represents a key brick in the so-called “Blue Wall” and is of strategic importance to the Conservatives who will be keen to point to a victory there as indicative of their continued popularity across the South of England. Having come in at a respectable second place in 2019, however, the Liberal Democrats are pumping resources into the seat and represent a legitimate electoral challenge.
A loss for a sitting member of the Cabinet would no doubt be an embarrassing re-run of the now infamous ‘Portillo moment’ for the Tories. The real concern however will be the extent to which the Liberal Democrats are able to replicate a win in Godalming and Ash across other key seats in the South and Southwest in places such as West Dorset, Yeovil, and Taunton and Wellington, leaving the “Blue Wall” a relic of the past.
Barnsley North
Barnsley North is the primary electoral target for Reform UK. With the precursor party to Reform, the Brexit Party, having lost by 3,000 votes in the former constituency of Barnsley Central in 2019, Reform needs a swing of just 4.5% to put their first directly elected MP in Westminster.
The picture in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is standing, is more complex. Despite having elected Douglas Carswell, the UKIP MP, in 2015, voters in Clacton proved loyal to Conservative candidate, Giles Watling, in 2017 and 2019 when he secured a majority of almost 25,000 votes. Early polling had suggested a Tory hold, but Reform will be hoping that the characteristic allure of Farage could prove sufficient to swing it for Reform in Clacton.
Visit our Elections ’24 microsite for the latest on polling and election analysis, up to 4 July and beyond!
