4 July 2024

Barring a seismic miscalculation from every polling house in the UK, on Friday morning the country will wake up to a Labour government. At this point, the focus will swiftly shift from campaigning to governing.

H/Advisors Cicero commissioned a nationally representative survey of 1,000 members of the general public that shines a light on what the electorate expect from their future Government^[1]. Below we explore four key findings:

Voter priorities: The big-ticket issues

The NHS, the economy and immigration have dominated the election campaign. These issues will also dominate the agenda of a new government. When forced to choose one policy area the public wish to see a new government “get right” 41% say health & social care, 21% say the economy and 16% say immigration. But did a little deeper and there is clear generational divide when it comes to the second and third big ticket issues.

The balancing act of priorities across generations:

• Health & social care is the “top” issue cited by all age groups, aside from 18-24s, where it comes a close second behind the Economy (35% vs 34%).
• Just 3% of 18-24s see immigration as the single most important issue. This is in stark contrast to 25% of 55–64-year-olds and 32% of those over 65.

Improving day-to-day quality of life

The last four years have been tumultuous for living standards. The pandemic, coupled with the cost-of-living crisis, have been heavy contributors to a decline in living standards. Inflation has thankfully eased, now at the target of 2%. But living standards have been left scarred, with food prices 25% higher than at the beginning of 2022^[2] and services inflation remaining stubbornly above the overall 2% target.

Our research suggests keeping a tight grip on inflation is a central expectation:

• Almost half (49%) want a new government to take further steps taken to keep inflation under control. 25–34-year-olds are most likely to see it as a priority (63%). This cohort – labelled “generation rent” – have seen rents increase by more than 11% a year^[3]. It is therefore understandable they want to see action from government to protect their spending power and ability to save for the future.

Alleviating a heavy tax burden is secondary to this and there is an acceptance that taxes will rise to improve public services:

• A central focus of the election campaign has been tax. The UK’s tax burden is the greatest since the Second World War. Just over a third (34%) of the general public want to see a reduction on the taxes paid by individuals.
• But an almost equal number (32%) would like to see more investment in public services funded through higher taxation.

Public optimism (and pressure)

Commentators have been unanimous in their assessment that the 2024 election hasn’t inspired. Despite this, there is strong feeling that change can be delivered.

There is a sense among the general public that things can improve, and quickly.

• In total, four in five (80%) expect changes made by a new government to have an impact on people’s everyday lives within the next 5 years.
• 13% expect to see change that impacts people before the end of 2024
• 30% expect to see change that impacts people in the next 1 – 2 years
• 36% expect to see change that impacts people by 5 years

Improvements are expected to be national, rather than local

As our Americans cousins say, “all politics is local”, while there is macro-optimism, the UK public has more subdued confidence that their local communities will reap the benefits of a new national government.

• 46% are confident the strength of the public sector in the UK will improve under a new government and 41% are confident that the overall prosperity of the UK will improve.
• But that same confidence does not transfer to local or micro-politics. Just 20% are confident the lives of people in their community will improve and 15% are confident their own life will improve as a result of a new administration.

Overall, whatever the outcome over the next 24 hours, our findings point towards a sense of opportunity. Our research suggests the public are optimistic, more still, they are expectant. The priorities are clear, but delivering change that meets the desires for a cross section of society that can be felt on an individual basis is the ultimate challenge that lies ahead.

To find out more about how H/Advisors Cicero can support your organisation post-election, please get in touch.

[1] Survey conducted via an online methodology 28^th – 30^th June, 1,000 sample nationally representative of age and gender in the UK.

[2] ONS, Cost of living insights: Food, Feb 2024

[3] BBC, Rent prices: How much have they gone up in your area, Mar 2023

2 July 2024

As we enter the last 48 hours of the election campaign, polling suggests we may see historically low turnout, with limited enthusiasm from voters for any of the parties on offer. What seems to be cutting through the general apathy is a desire for change and the removal of the Conservatives from Government. To that end, more voters than ever appear to be thinking strategically about how they cast their ballot and turning to tactical voting.

What is tactical voting?

Tactical voting is a strategy used by voters to maximise the impact of their vote, usually to prevent another candidate from winning. This works by voters offering their support to the party that is most likely to beat the undesired candidate.

For instance, if a Liberal Democrat supporter in a Conservative/Labour marginal wanted to prevent the Conservative candidate from winning, they would lend their vote to the Labour Party to maximise the chances of keeping the Conservatives out.

What influence could tactical voting have in the 2024 election?

Despite the predicted scale of a Labour majority, the large swing of vote share means that many voters who have long been in ‘safe’ seats now find themselves voting in a tight race. Those in previously safe Conservative seats may have felt free to vote for third parties in the past in the knowledge that tactical voting would have little impact. However, at this election, the chance of beating the Conservatives seems very real in many seats which may persuade people to vote tactically for whoever has the best chance at beating the Tories, whether they be Labour, SNP or Liberal Democrat.

What does the polling say?

Polling from YouGov has shown that 33% of voters are intending to vote tactically to stop the party they like the least from winning, up from 19% in 2019. When broken down to which party they like the least, 70% said the Conservatives, with only 26% saying Labour. The overwhelming majority of tactical voting at this election is expected to prevent another Conservative term in Government.

Of those voting tactically, 46% are choosing Labour over the Conservatives and 28% are choosing the Liberal Democrats over them too. 82% of Remain voters and even 43% of Leave voters who plan to vote tactically said they would do so to try and stop the Conservatives from winning. On the right, there also appears to be more enthusiasm for Reform UK than the Conservatives. Of those who will be voting for their first choice of party, 25% are supporting Reform UK, with only 19% supporting the Tories as their first choice.

What is the connection between tactical voting and the Liberal Democrats?

An interesting story emerging from the polling numbers is the level of tactical voting among Liberal Democrat supporters. 46% of 2019 Lib Dem voters have said they will vote tactically at this election, with 87% of those voting against the Tories. In addition, 53% of those who say they will vote for the Liberal Democrats in 2024 are doing so for tactical reasons.

How are different demographic groups voting?

When looking at demographic breakdowns, there is a clear trend of younger voters being more likely to vote tactically, and older voters being more likely to back their favourite party. Among 18-24 year-olds, 38% say they will vote tactically, with 91% of those doing so to prevent a Conservative candidate from being elected, indicating a potential dissatisfaction with policies like national service from the Tories.

The level of tactical voting amongst younger people could be attributed to online campaigns by organisations including Best for Britain and Stop the Tories. However, even amongst the over 65 age group, 28% are voting tactically with 43% of those doing so against the Tories, suggesting that dissatisfaction with the Government has penetrated even their largest voter group.

Conclusion

If tactical voting succeeds on Thursday, many high-profile Conservatives could be vulnerable. Current polling suggests a worst-case scenario for the Conservatives could be a seat count as low as 57.

1906, 1945 and 1997 all saw landslide defeats from the Conservatives, at the hands of co-ordinated anti-Tory coalitions. In 2024, tactical voting could play a bigger role than ever, with individual efforts and coordinated campaigns working towards ousting them, ultimately playing a potentially significant role in a Labour victory.

Visit our Elections ’24 microsite for the latest on polling and election analysis, up to election day and beyond.

28 June 2024

There is now less than a week to go until the 2024 General Election which is widely expected to usher in a change of Government for the first time in 14 years. Having entrenched a 20-point lead over their Conservative rivals in the national polls, Labour is anticipated to be the next party of Government, with Keir Starmer at the helm as the likely next Prime Minister.

As with any General Election, the ultimate result will hinge on the outcomes of a series of local electoral battles in 650 parliamentary constituencies across the country. Labour must win the majority of those fights if it is to go on to form a government.

The H/Advisors Cicero team has picked five key seats to watch that could shape the national picture.

Cannock Chase

There are 55 ”bellwether” constituencies across the country, one of which includes Cannock Chase in Staffordshire. Whilst voting margins tend to be narrow in “bellwether seats”, a reflection of the electorate’s tendency to switch allegiance at pace, Cannock Chase is notable for the scale of its Conservative majority. The incumbent, Amanda Milling, has grown a relatively slim 5,000 vote majority in 2015 to an impressive 20,000 vote majority in 2019. A nervous Labour will be hoping for a clean sweep across those indicative “bellwether” seats to reassure them of their path to power, but Milling’s clear local popularity could present them with a potential challenge in Cannock Chase. For now, however, Labour has pulled ahead according latest MRP polling for the seat.

Worthing West

Historically, voting in Worthing West has been notoriously consistent. In stark contrast to nearby Brighton Pavilion, which became the first parliamentary constituency to elect a Green Party MP in 2010 after periods of representation by both Labour and the Conservatives, voters in Worthing West have remained loyal to the Conservative MP, Peter Bottomley, since 1997 when the seat was first created.

Bottomley (who is standing again 50 years on from his first election in Woolwich West) is defending a healthy majority of almost 15,000 votes but has found himself facing unprecedented levels of support for the Labour candidate, Rebecca Cooper, who is campaigning hard on local issues and leaning into frustration on issues such as water quality and sewage in this coastal constituency. Latest MRP polling by YouGov suggests it could be third time lucky for Cooper who came second to Bottomley in 2017 and 2019. A loss in a historically loyal seat with a large majority would deal a heavy blow to the Conservatives who must retain as many existing Tory safe seats as possible if they are to fend off a Labour super majority.

Bishop Auckland

Looking back, perhaps the most significant development at the 2019 election was the fall of the so-called “Red Wall”, the swathe of seats in the North of England that turned from red to blue in large part due to the electoral allure and anti-EU rhetoric of former Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. For Keir Starmer, regaining the “Red Wall” is a strategic and reputational priority. Bishop Auckland is amongst the seats that his activists are targeting. In 2019, the Conservatives overturned 100 years of Labour representation there to secure an impressive 8,000 vote majority. But whilst the Conservatives possess a numerical advantage, the resignation of the popular Tory incumbent, Dehenna Davidson, will likely work in Labour’s favour. Polling is currently predicting a return to a Labour majority.

Godalming and Ash

Godalming and Ash, the successor seat to the former South West Surrey constituency, will be one of the most keenly watched seats on election night. Notwithstanding its high-profile incumbent Jeremy Hunt who has been the MP for South West Surrey since 2005, the seat represents a key brick in the so-called “Blue Wall” and is of strategic importance to the Conservatives who will be keen to point to a victory there as indicative of their continued popularity across the South of England. Having come in at a respectable second place in 2019, however, the Liberal Democrats are pumping resources into the seat and represent a legitimate electoral challenge.

A loss for a sitting member of the Cabinet would no doubt be an embarrassing re-run of the now infamous ‘Portillo moment’ for the Tories. The real concern however will be the extent to which the Liberal Democrats are able to replicate a win in Godalming and Ash across other key seats in the South and Southwest in places such as West Dorset, Yeovil, and Taunton and Wellington, leaving the “Blue Wall” a relic of the past.

Barnsley North

Barnsley North is the primary electoral target for Reform UK. With the precursor party to Reform, the Brexit Party, having lost by 3,000 votes in the former constituency of Barnsley Central in 2019, Reform needs a swing of just 4.5% to put their first directly elected MP in Westminster.

The picture in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is standing, is more complex. Despite having elected Douglas Carswell, the UKIP MP, in 2015, voters in Clacton proved loyal to Conservative candidate, Giles Watling, in 2017 and 2019 when he secured a majority of almost 25,000 votes. Early polling had suggested a Tory hold, but Reform will be hoping that the characteristic allure of Farage could prove sufficient to swing it for Reform in Clacton.  

Visit our Elections ’24 microsite for the latest on polling and election analysis, up to 4 July and beyond!

24 June 2024

In this blog, H/Advisors Cicero Director and Labour Councillor Emma Turnbull talks about how Labour candidates are feeling in the final weeks of the campaign.

As the General Election looms, Labour candidates across the country are holding their nerve. After years in the wilderness, five Conservative Prime Ministers and two referendums, polls suggest the party is on the cusp of victory. But far away from Labour’s Southside HQ, their candidates are at the forefront of a hard-fought ground campaign to make the predicted majority a reality.

Division of seats being contested

Labour has had the seeds of their campaign sewn for a long time. The start of their planning process involved splitting constituency seats into three categories:

• Safe Seats: Candidates in safe seats enjoy a comfortable majority and face little risk of losing to an opponent.
• Unwinnable Seats: Candidates in unwinnable seats face an uphill battle and so are focused on supporting neighbouring colleagues in battleground seats.
• Battleground Seats: Candidates in battleground seats compete against opponents with slim majorities (10,000 or less). Flipping these constituencies is essential for Labour’s success.

Take a look at the candidates: Cicero’s PPC tracker

What’s required of Labour candidates to be successful at the polls

Acutely aware of their seat designation, candidates are expected to work towards a Labour majority in Westminster whether they’re likely to become an MP or not. To be a good candidate and team player, all have a set of core requirements during the campaign:

• Know your stuff: Whether parachuted into a seat or deeply connected, candidates must understand and be able to speak to Labour’s national commitments as well as local issues relevant to the constituency.
• Visible presence: Whether through social media or door knocking, it’s necessary for candidates to build something of a presence, at the very least in the view or minds of those in the local party.
• Hustings participation: Often taking place in school halls or churches, hustings give the public an opportunity to quiz candidates from different political parties on what they would bring to the local area if elected as the MP. With so much at stake, Labour candidates have been asked to record what they say at local hustings and other public events to help the party mitigate the risk of any potential fallout.

With many commentators complaining that the election feels like it’s over and a Labour majority inevitable, candidates are increasingly closing their minds to what happens after polling day. Many can’t afford to think that victory is certain. On the ground, there is a stark number of undecided voters who seem disillusioned with politics and the options available.

Labour’s strategy to win battleground constituencies

To secure victory in battleground seats and counter the insurgent national campaigns of Ed Davey and Nigel Farage, Labour has channelled significant resource and money into battleground constituencies:

• Battle-hardened organisers: Experienced local organisers, tested during numerous by-elections in the last Parliament, lead campaigns, rally activists through dedicated Whatsapp groups, and manage candidates.
• Printed materials: Leaflets, lawn signs, and posters flood the constituency, reinforcing Labour’s message.
• Fresh activists: Candidates in unwinnable seats are paired with battleground candidates and are required to direct their activists to their neighbour’s constituency. Labour’s regional teams do not look favourably on candidates who fail to prioritise party success and instead, focus their efforts on a seat they are highly unlikely to win.

The last few weeks of the campaign will go slowly for Labour Party candidates. The cautious six-week campaign (defined by “Ming vase” strategy) and the party’s ongoing lead in the polls has built anticipation. With the campaign soon to reach its climax, no candidate wants to be remembered as the one who dropped the ball and let the side down.   

Visit our Elections ’24 microsite for the latest on polling and election analysis, right up to 4 July.

24 June 2024

Last week, H/Advisors Cicero hosted legendary polling expert, Sir John Curtice, at our offices in London. Sir John provided an hour of insights into the current campaign polling figures, followed by a Q&A with an audience of representatives from a variety of industry backgrounds.

Read more analysis on our Elections ’24 microsite here

Topline summary of General Election polling assessments

Sir John began with a presentation on what the polls are currently reporting, focusing on Labour’s consistent lead over the Conservatives, and the increase in figures seen by Reform UK since 2019. The sentiment in the room, as well as in the polling explained by Sir John, is that this election is one driven by how badly the Conservatives are losing, rather than how much the Labour Party is winning.

Sir John detailed the ways in which polling can be a useful tool, MRP polls in particular, when looking at geographical shifts in voting, especially relevant for the Conservatives in this scenario. However, he was clear that polling reliability should not be overstated as there are some factors that can impact the outcome, such as the data exclusion of those who do not know how they will vote, or the assumptions made about their voting intentions based on historic polling.

Here is a summary of the key points from Professor Curtice’s talk:

Key points

• Polling is useful in an election campaign for a variety of reasons, notably to analyse change, separate the “knows” from the “don’t knows”, and to measure sentiment across the country. However, their reliability should not be overstated – polls should be “taken and not inhaled”.
• The “don’t knows” provide a certain level of uncertainty in the campaign polling, which is likely to last through to 4 July.
• Two key reasons driving the demise in polling figures for the Conservatives are Boris Johnson’s untenable relationship with the truth following the Covid inquiry and Liz Truss’s short-lived economic policy.
• While initially polls showed ex-Conservative voters tended to sway to Labour, recent trends indicate that these figures have gone down, as more instead are now shifting to Reform.
• Age is the biggest differentiator in terms of voting demographic in our society.
• Geography will play an important part in shifting votes away from the Conservatives in this general election:
  • You Gov’s MRP poll showed a predicted 140 seats for the Conservatives and 422 for Labour, whereas the Survation MRP poll showed a tougher election day for the Conservatives, putting them at 80 seats, and Labour at 443.
  • The conclusion one can draw from the Survation poll as opposed to YouGov’s poll is that the Conservative vote loss could be much higher in seats that are deemed “safe”, rather than marginal.
• MRP polls can of course still shift, but they are reliable insofar as we have MRP data from other elections to direct them.
• This aligns with polling in the local elections, where the Conservatives fell in many historically safe seats.
• One key issue for the Conservatives is that Reform has increased their polling position by approximately 10% and the Conservatives have done little in terms of producing a strategy to combat this threat from the right.
• Are we really facing an unprecedented election in terms of result and campaign?
  • The campaign trail itself is not unprecedented.
  • The level of Tory support we come to see on polling day could be unprecedented.
  • The share of votes won by the two largest parties may set a new record low.
  • We may end up with five UK-wide parties in Parliament, each with at least five seats. 

For more analysis of the polls and to understand what the General Election results will mean for you, get in touch.

19 June 2024

We’re thrilled to host legendary psephologist and long-time friend of H/Advisors Cicero, Professor Sir John Curtice, to share his unparalleled insights into the upcoming UK General Election.

Sir John, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research has joined us before to discuss several previous elections and will be returning to give us an update on this campaign just two weeks before the public goes to the polls.

Date: Wednesday 19 June

Time: 12.00pm for 12.30pm start until 1.30pm

Venue: Havas Village London, 3 Pancras Square, N1C 4AG

To book a place please email Simon Fitzpatrick at simon.fitzpatrick@h-advisors.global.