10 January 2024

Having lived in relative political obscurity since his promotion to leader of the Liberal Democrats in 2019, Sir Ed Davey finds himself in the political spotlight this week after the Post Office Horizon scandal. An historic miscarriage of justice which had been left to smolder for more than 10 years, it was reignited by the ITV drama, Mr Bates Vs the Post Office.

The Government’s reactive response to the resurrection of the story (Rishi Sunak has announced emergency legislation to exonerate victims of the Post Office scandal today) has quelled some of the disdain directed towards the Conservative establishment, for now – although it should be said that Sunak’s growing tendency towards government by the news agenda does not project an image of assured leadership.

Ed Davey, however, who was Minister for Postal Affairs under the Coalition Government at the time of the wrongful convictions, has fared less well after it emerged that he refused to meet campaigning sub-postmasters at the time. Although he has attempted to apologise, his claim that he was misled by the Post Office has been read as an attempt to pass the buck, and suggestions that he is keen to shift the blame have landed him fighting accusations of hypocrisy.

Former Cabinet Minister, Sir John Redwood, and Deputy Conservative Chairman, Lee Anderson, are now leading calls for his resignation.

What next for Sir Ed Davey?

We’ve not yet had any clear indication from Davey as to whether he intends to resign, or indeed from the Liberal Democrat Party as to its appetite to push Davey out before he jumps (a technical possibility according to the federal election regulations, although party sentiment resides with Davey for now at least). And whilst this issue could yet subside just as quickly as it arose, political pressure is continuing to stack up against him, leaving a leadership election looking increasingly likely.

Strategists in CCHQ will no doubt be enjoying watching this fallout unfold. Without a leader at its helm, the party would risk undermining the progress it had made towards election in its target seats, opening a door for the Tories to reassert themselves in the parts of the blue wall that had looked likely to turn orange.

Of course, the opposite may also prove to be true. Davey is liked and respected as an individual; as a politician, however, he has failed to capture the public’s imagination. His solid leadership has seen the Lib Dems make up ground in recent by-elections and would no doubt guide the party to an improved electoral performance on 2019. He is unlikely however to deliver a barnstorming win for the party, and victory is unlikely in all 80 seats that the Lib Dems have marked out to target under his relatively neutral leadership.

A fresh face could provide the party with the injection of energy that it needs to give momentum to the campaigns in those target seats. But the limiting factor will be time. Internal party regulations stipulate that the election process must take between seven and fifteen weeks, suggesting that a new leader may not be installed for two, if not three, months. With an election mooted for November, and the majority of the potential candidates still relatively unknown amongst the wider voting public, party staff would have their work cut out if they were to successfully raise the profile of Davey’s successor to such an extent that they were able to breathe new life into the campaign.

Please get in touch with Claudia Mulholland for more information on the leadership election process and the potential runners and riders to replace Davey.