30 April 2025

Labour seeks stability, Tories brace for losses, and Reform eyes breakthrough

Local elections are typically seen as a litmus test for the government of the day. However, in 2025, commentators are viewing these local elections as a litmus test for the state of British politics. On 1^st May, the UK will see the smallest number of council seats contested since 1975, with the English Devolution White Paper resulting in the postponement of elections in nine council areas. But, the significance of these elections could be far from small.

Current polling suggests a highly competitive race, with 1,641 councillors to be elected across 23 councils: 14 county councils, 8 unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough. Doncaster, the sole metropolitan borough in this cycle, will elect all 55 councillors and its mayor — a key Labour defence. Four combined authority areas will also hold mayoral elections, including inaugural votes in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire, which will be a priority target for Reform UK. The Runcorn & Helsby by-election, prompted by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury will also take place on Thursday.

The debate has intensified over the possibility of a Conservative-Reform pact to ‘unite the right’, and whether a coalition should take place on a national level. Despite Leader Kemi Badenoch disputing this would be a possibility in recent months, over the weekend she conceded that deals could be done locally. The rationale for this being that many Reform candidates are defected Tory councillors that will have established relationships on a local level. However, the Tory mayor of Tees Valley Lord Ben Houchen and wannabe conservative leader Robert Jenrick, set their stall out this weekend that a deal with Nigel Farage should be considered on a national level to keep Labour out of office at the next general election. 

Elections taking place on Thursday

For the Government, these elections mark the first opportunity to gauge their local appeal since securing a majority last summer. The Conservatives face a daunting challenge, defending over 900 seats in ‘Tory shires’ won during Boris Johnson’s peak popularity in 2021. These seats are now under siege from both Labour and Reform, with the latter aiming to convert rising poll numbers into tangible gains — winning councillors, gaining control, and solidifying their foothold in the British political landscape.

Whilst the local elections on 1st May presents a pivotal test for both Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader, Nigel Farage faces the ultimate test of credibility among political leaders. Reform UK aims to secure over 200 council seats, focusing on areas like Durham, Doncaster, Lancashire, Kent, and Lincolnshire. Additionally, the Runcorn and Helsby by-election stands as a pivotal goal for Reform, with polls indicating they could snatch victory, raising their total number of MPs to five.

A series of victories nationwide would solidify Reform’s status as a political force, but it would also raise critical questions about Farage’s leadership style and provide a practical test of whether his party is truly equipped to govern.

Labour under pressure 

Labour is cautiously optimistic about the upcoming local elections but is tempering expectations. Historically, Labour has not performed well in most of the areas going to the polls on 1^st May, but having fewer seats at risk means it may avoid significant electoral damage.

Labour’s primary focus is on defending two mayoralties it has held since 2021 – the West of England and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough – and winning the newly created mayoralty for Hull and East Yorkshire. While defending either mayoralty will not be easy, the West of England mayoralty is particularly vulnerable. The outgoing Mayor and MP, Dan Norris, was recently arrested on suspicion of rape and child sex offences, leaving the new candidate and campaigners with difficult questions on the doorstep about what Labour did or did not know about the alleged offences.  

The Liberal Democrats and Greens pose a threat to Labour’s position, having secured significant portions of the vote in the 2021 West of England mayoral election and performing well locally last year. The Greens gained ten council seats and unseated Labour Shadow Minister Thangam Debbonaire in Bristol Central during the General Election. 

The battle for the mayoralty in Hull and East Yorkshire is shaping up as a straight two-way fight between Labour and Reform, and according to Labour polling, they’re neck-and-neck. It is certainly an interesting election between an establishment and non-establishment character. The Reform candidate, Luke Campbell, is a popular local resident and former gold-winning Team GB boxer who is up against the Labour candidate, Margaret Pinder, an experienced policy-focused local politician and solicitor. A Reform win would demonstrate the vulnerability in Labour’s newly reformed “red wall” in the north of England.  

Losing these mayoral elections would be seen as a significant setback for Labour. Given the substantial resources being invested in these campaigns, such losses could highlight a material impact of the Chancellor’s recent fiscal statement and spark criticism of national party policy by Labour activists.

A moment of truth for the Tories

With the most to lose in these local elections, the spotlight is firmly on the Conservative Party’s performance at the ballot box and the future of its leader, Kemi Badenoch. 16 of the 23 county councils, unitary authorities, and metropolitan districts up for election currently have Conservative majorities. 

The last time these council seats were contested was in the aftermath of the pandemic, following Boris Johnson’s successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine. The Tory party achieved their best night for 13 years on the National Equivalent Vote, which works out the national picture based on the local results. Defending the success of 2021 will prove challenging for the Conservatives, who have halved their vote share since 2021, and public sentiment towards the party remains unfavourable. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is fielding candidates in nearly every seat, which risks splitting the Conservative vote and allowing more moderate parties to gain ground. 

The real battle ground for Badenoch will be Kent County Council, which has been Conservative run for most of its existence. Since its creation in1974, it has had a Conservative leader for all but four years when, between 1993 and 1997, the authority was led by joint leaders from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Tory heartlands Staffordshire and Lincolnshire will also prove testing.

Badenoch, who has struggled to gain traction and support since her election, has warned her party that they face “very difficult” local elections, but it is unclear what the outcome could be on Badenoch herself. After a turbulent few years and a rolling door of leaders, it is likely that the Conservative party will want to maintain consistency for now, but whatever the results, the pressure will be on for Badenoch to make some real progress in the coming months.

Reform’s Reckoning: Farage’s Big Test

Reform has emerged as the only party to experience a significant surge in popularity since the 2024 general election. A wave of disillusioned Conservative voters has shifted their allegiance to the party, with few returning to the Tories under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. Farage has described the May elections as the “first major hurdle” on Reform’s path to power, with the party contesting nearly all 1,600 council seats, six metro and single-authority mayoral races, and the Runcorn and Helsby by-election — an ambitious expansion compared to the 2024 local elections.

Reform aims to capitalise on their momentum by targeting council seats in areas traditionally dominated by the Conservatives but where a significant vote share was lost to Reform last July. Opportunities to exploit dissatisfaction with Labour are more limited. However, Farage is determined to unsettle the Government by positioning Reform as the primary challenger to the Conservatives in key regions and threatening Labour’s hold on Doncaster Metropolitan Council.

The party made notable gains in the Lincolnshire County Council area during the general election, securing several second-place finishes and capturing the safest Conservative seat in the country. Recent defections of local councillors to Reform have further bolstered their presence. If the party manages to strip the Tories of their majority — or even take control of the Council — it could solidify their position in Lincolnshire for future elections.

However, whilst a strong showing nationwide would establish Reform as a formidable political force, their ability to govern, if elected, will be a crucial test if they want to be a serious contender in the next general election.  With many questions raised in the past year about Reform’s vetting procedures, May 1^st will bring intense scrutiny to potential Reform mayors and even greater expectations for councils under their leadership.

An opportunity for Liberal Democrats and the Greens

When launching his local election campaign, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, declared his mission to replace the Conservatives as the “party of Middle England”, with the aim of taking second place in local government coverage. The Liberal Democrats have majority control in 37 councils, 12 short of the Conservatives’ current threshold of 49. They’re seeking to build their base in Tory strongholds such as Essex and Kent and other “Tory shires”, including Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire, where recent by-elections have favoured them.

The Liberal Democrats are also going full steam ahead against Reform in the pre-election period, announcing a “Farage fighting fund”. The fund demonstrates a bid to quash the threat from the far-right party in key battlegrounds, including Devon, Cornwall and Shropshire, and has received over £100,000 in donations. Contrastingly, it has been suggested that Reform UK has spent more than £2m on a personalised mailshot campaign to postal voters, leading to Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem deputy leader challenging Farage to be transparent on donations. When it comes to the Liberal Democrat-Reform battle, the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoralty race will be one to watch, with both parties fighting tooth and nail to secure their candidate as the first-ever mayor of the new Combined Authority.

As for the Greens, another party that had much to celebrate after winning four parliamentary seats at the 2024 General Election, a focus remains on incrementally increasing influence in central urban areas. The Greens will be looking to leverage Labour’s welfare reforms and wavering on environmental policy to make further inroads with the disgruntled progressive voter. Their key test will be the mayoral election in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and West of England combined authority. The Greens currently control Bristol Council and have faced criticism of their governance to date amidst rising council taxes and perceived falling services, which could impact their vote share. A reminder to all challenger parties that campaigning for seats is one thing, but governing is something else entirely.

To conclude, the elections on 1^st May could mark a seismic shift in British politics and challenge each party to ask some big questions. Labour might have to assess who their core voters are in 2025, Reform could be forced to contemplate how to govern in practice, and the Conservatives may be forced to ask whether the only way is up.

2 April 2025

Last week the Chancellor painted a bleak economic outlook with stagnant growth and tighter public spending – only the MOD and DHSC are receiving notable investment from the Treasury. In return, the Treasury expects DHSC to be an engine for economic growth: getting more people back into work and helping them stay in work. However, as it stands reorganising NHS England and moderately increasing investment is unlikely to be enough, especially in the face of an ageing population. A more ambitious approach is needed—one that recognises the role employers can play in supporting the nation’s health.

To address the number of people out of work due to ill health – today far higher than European counterparts – the Government has also announced significant welfare reforms. Their solution is to rethink our welfare system and introduce cuts to parts of Universal Credit and the Personal Independence Payment, a move which has already been criticised by health organisations.

Should businesses bear some responsibility for their employees’ health?

An alternative solution would be to rethink what role employers, employees and the Government have in keeping us healthy. The UK Government’s ongoing employment law reforms could be a powerful tool to incentivise businesses to play a bigger role in workforce health. Yet, instead of aligning policy changes with the need to reduce long-term sickness absence, current reforms risk adding costs to businesses without offering them the right support or incentives to keep their employees well. Even with the Employment Rights Bill causing growing concern amongst business, earlier this week Angela Rayner doubled down, tying the reforms personally to the Prime Minister.

Germany and other European countries take a different approach, embedding occupational health responsibilities into employment law frameworks, ensuring that businesses actively contribute to workforce wellbeing. Roughly 86% of the German population is enrolled in statutory health insurance alongside universal occupational health services. Other European countries follow similar frameworks, recognising that keeping people healthy is not just the responsibility of the state but also of employers.

Time to rethink the Employment Rights Bill?

If the UK government is serious about getting more people back into work and tackling long-term sickness, it should rethink the scope of its employment law reforms—moving beyond cost burdens to policies that empower businesses to be part of the solution.

This approach might not be as radical as you might first think. Recent polling has shown that 83% of the British public think employers have a responsibility in helping support employees to manage their long-term health conditions to stay in employment. Younger generations are also far more open to accessing healthcare outside the NHS. Many businesses, particularly larger corporates, are already stepping up, offering occupational health services and employee assistance programs. This growing appetite among businesses highlights the role employers are taking in maintaining their employees’ wellbeing.

Sir Charlie Mayfield is looking at exactly the issue of ‘Keeping Britain Working’ and his discovery has already highlighted an increasing role for employers in keeping their employees well. This independent review has the scope to go further – examining European models of employer-led healthcare and radically rethinking the role of UK employers in keeping their workforce healthy. Our European neighbours have shown that incentivising employers to maintain healthy workplaces is a far more effective long-term solution than politically contentious welfare cuts or employment law that imposes growth restrictions.

For a Government struggling to driving economic growth and improve the nation’s health, embracing employer-led healthcare is an obvious step forward. Rather than relying on welfare cuts that will likely increase hardship and strain the NHS further, policymakers should focus on creating a system that rewards businesses for investing in employee health. The solution is clear: if Britain is to tackle its economic and health challenges, it must rethink the role of employers in building a healthier, more resilient workforce.

Get in touch with our health team here

4 March 2025

Last week, Amanda Pritchard, Chief Executive of NHS England, rather unceremoniously announced that she would step down within a month. Shortly after the announcement, Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, made it clear whose decision this was by saying, “we will…require a new relationship between the Department of Health and Social Care and NHS England”. It’s fair to say that this has been expected since Streeting first walked into DHSC in July 2024. He almost immediately set out that DHSC and his team would lead on the 10-year NHSE plan – previously these plans have been written by NHSE leaders.

Wes Streeting: The NHS Reformer

Streeting has set out a clear trajectory to significantly reform NHSE. First, he put an end to the dispute with Resident doctors, stopping strikes in NHSE. This was achieved with a lot of investment in resident doctors’ pay, but also by asking NHSE to significantly reform resident doctor working practices, one of his first major changes. Secondly, Streeting asked Lord Darzi to set out how broken NHSE is, buying himself some time to work out how to fix it. Finally, he will set out exactly how to fix NHSE in Spring 2025.

This clear decision from Streeting to change NHS leadership, which was sped up by Pritchard’s recent underwhelming performance at the Health Select Committee. With sizeable reforms to the NHS now expected on the way, and Streeting needs an NHS CEO fully on board with his plans.

For now, Sir Jim Mackey is the “transition” chief executive. Sir Jim will be well known to most, now running Newcastle hospitals. From 2021 to 2024, he was leading on NHSE’s elective recovery, one of the biggest jobs in NHSE. He was also in the running to be CEO of NHSE when Amanda Pritchard was appointed.

Sir Jim is seen as a more willing reformer, but importantly when Sir Jim ran elective recovery, he was clear that he is open to NHSE working closer with the Government. But the title “transition” suggests he might not be a permanent appointment, by his own admission he will be in post for one to two years.

The challenges Streeting faces next

Streeting is looking after the second biggest budget in Whitehall, it’s one of the few that is going up, while many are being cut. Consequently, he is going to be under enormous political pressure to deliver results and get waitlists down. Although he’s had some early success (waiting lists have now fallen for four months in a row) longer-term success will be a challenge. The average age of our population continues to rise and although Streeting might have been awarded an increase in spending by Rachel Reeves, the confident BMA will be looking for their fair share. The RCN have also said that the touted 2.8% pay increase for nurses would be an insult. To alleviate the pressure in this transition time Streeting will likely be asking Sir Jim to use his recent experience to laser focus on getting the elective waitlist down, instead of crafting and then driving the reforms that Streeting’s team is building in DHSC.

Streeting has also recently expressed his frustration at the duplication of roles in both DHSC and NHSE, which is often resulting in disagreements on policy. To tackle this, he has suggested shrinking NHSE and merging some teams with DHSC. The decision from Streeting to replace an NHSE CEO, and his message to Sir Jim that he has “a remit to radically reshape” ties, shows a clear reset and reframing of the DHSC and NHSE relationship, which had broken down. Combined with Streeting’s desire to cut the number of NHS staff, it’s clear that power now lies in the Department.

Some have interpreted this decision as a “power grab”, or something to keep health journalists busy while they wait for Streeting’s 10-year plan, or an expression of his pure frustration at the pace of change in NHSE. It is likely to be a combination of all three, but it certainly does show an increasing politicisation of the role of NHSE CEO, which previous NHS reforms have attempted to stop.

Get in touch with our health team here

16 September 2024

Lord Darzi’s report made a splash last week with his, and subsequently Keir Starmer’s, description of the NHS as a patient in critical condition dominating the front pages and broadcast media. It was nothing short of a political hand grenade chastising years of Conservative stewardship of the NHS. Austerity and its consequences for capital investment alongside Lansley’s reforms in 2012 were, suggests Darzi, responsible for drastically impacting the UK’s response to COVID-19 and will impact our nation’s health for years to come.

In the third month since the General Election, Labour continues to work hard to land their key message that the Conservatives broke Britain and within that larger picture, the NHS. It’s a message they will continue to hammer home in the run-up to the Budget and we can expect Health Secretary Wes Streeting to go hard on the Darzi Report’s findings in his Labour Party conference speech next week.

Labour’s narrative: public health and prevention

But what happens beyond that? The fast-moving pace of our media, and the public stake in this sector, is such that as soon as Darzi’s report diagnosed the problems, articles started emerging focused on what the solutions might be. Very quickly a narrative set in around public health and prevention, perhaps because coincidentally, a government consultation response on the 9pm watershed for junk food advertising was published on the same day as the Darzi Report.

Whilst we know prevention and public health is central to Labour’s health policy approach, it is no silver bullet. Darzi also believes that moving care from hospital to community settings and transitioning the NHS technologically speaking – from analogue to digital – must be prioritised with equal vigour.

The Government’s 10 Year Plan for NHS recovery and reform will focus on these themes and lay out the roadmap for NHS recovery. Darzi has made clear that repairing the NHS is a marathon, not a sprint and the plan for the recovery won’t be published until the spring. In the meantime, the Government has a lot of work to do to prepare our health service and key stakeholders like the British Medical Association, which have historically been resistant to change, for the reform that is to come.   

How does the Darzi Report align into the Government’s wider plans?

For avid health policy wonks, the question will be where the Government’s Mission Delivery Board fits into this picture. In principle, it’s an excellent idea for driving change and joining up thinking between Government Departments particularly on public health and prevention. But we still don’t know the extent to which the 10 Year NHS Plan will influence the work of the Mission Delivery Board or all the names of people who will be responsible for its various workstreams.

Given that there’s so much in flux, the question I have is whether sound Government communications will be enough to manage the expectations of a population that voted for change, and much like consumers who’ve paid for a service, expect to see the difference quickly. For now the answer is maybe. So much depends on whether Labour works in partnership with sector stakeholders on the 10 Year Plan and thereafter, as well as the extent to which political opponents hold them to account in Parliament and through the media.

Get in touch to discuss the Darzi Report and any other healthcare related issues.

18 July 2024

King Charles III’s speech marks the beginning of the new Labour Government’s legislative priorities, featuring 40 bills, an unusually high number. This ambitious agenda reflects the Government’s determination to implement sweeping changes, but it also poses challenges for parliamentary scrutiny and timely implementation. Including the risk of legislative bottlenecks, not least with four bills remaining in draft form, which suggests they are unlikely to pass in this session.

But what does the volume of content in the King’s Speech tell us about this Government’s ambitions?

A clear vision

The programme reflects Labour’s five core missions: economic stability and growth; establishing the UK as a clean energy superpower; securing borders and tackling antisocial behaviour; breaking down barriers to opportunity; and health. Despite initial pushback, framing the legislative agenda around these missions sets a clear framework for Labour’s vision.

Priorities

Economic stability and growth are major priorities, with 15 of the 40 bills dedicated to this goal. Key bills include the Budget Responsibility Bill, which establishes independent assessment by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR); the National Wealth Fund Bill, creating a statutory basis for the National Wealth Fund; and the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, aimed at driving infrastructure development.

The exclusion of other flagship legislation, like extending voting rights to 16-year-olds, shows the Government’s focus on consolidating its agenda to deliver on main priorities.

There has been some flexibility to the mission centred approach with Bills introduced recognising a response to geopolitical tensions is needed. Additional legislation on national security, including the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill, has been announced in an effort to ensure stability and prioritise national security.

The programme also represents a continuation of areas the previous Government looked at, including regulation on Tobacco & Football Governance, while a change in tack on  Employment and Planning regulation is clear.

Treasury back on top?

Approximately five of these 15 growth bills will sit with the Treasury, which takes on a larger share of legislation than had previously been anticipated given the inclusion of two unreported financial services bills; including the Pensions Schemes Bill and the Bank Resolution (Recapitalisation) Bill.

The remaining 10 sit across other Government departments including the rebranded Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, the Department for Transport and the Ministry of Justice, an embodiment of Starmer’s ambition to embed his missions across Whitehall and promote cross-departmental collaboration. 

Challenges

Certain bills are expected to spark debate, such as the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, likely to face opposition from the Liberal Democrats over greenbelt development, and the Border Security, Asylum, and Immigration Bill, which could face challenges from Reform UK benches. With a significant majority in the Commons, the Government is well-positioned to overcome opposition amendments. However, loyalty from backbenchers, especially newly elected Labour MPs with narrow majorities, will be crucial.

Next Steps

The first Bills could be introduced as early as tomorrow, with Second Reading scheduled after the King’s Speech debate concludes on 25 July. There is speculation that Friday 26 July might be declared an official sitting day to expedite progress before the summer recess.

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12 February 2024

You’ve got your personal resolutions under your belt. What about your company’s?

As we settle into the new year following the festive season, familiar sights start to appear. Gyms overflow, meal plans multiply, and social media proliferates with pledges of personal renewal. Now that we have got through the month where many of us obsess over our individual health kicks, have you considered the health of something equally important: your company’s internal perception?

As January resets encourage people to declutter their lifestyles and environments, it’s important to remember that brands too can develop clutter over time. Negative experiences, outdated messaging, and internal speculation can poison our internal culture and, ultimately, tarnish our external image. That’s why with January’s fresh-start energy embedded, now is the perfect time for an internal detox – a chance to scrub away the grime and reveal your brand’s authentic values and mission.

When looking at your internal brand health, here are some key things to bear in mind:

1. Internal perception drives external reality

Your employees are the eyes and ears of your brand. If they don’t understand or believe in your mission and values, it’ll show in their interactions with customers and partners and will ultimately reflect on the external brand perception. An internal audit is a great place to test messaging and how effectively your people live your core values. So, listen to those closest to you. Conduct staff surveys, hold honest discussions with internal stakeholders, and understand their perception of your culture. Are they proud to represent your brand? Do they feel heard and valued? Do they really understand your mission and purpose? This internal feedback is gold dust for external success.

2. Remove the clutter, reveal the core

We all know the most effective resets are the simple ones that deliver manageable and consistent habits. Brands get clogged with inconsistent messaging, outdated visuals, and irrelevant content. Take this time to audit your brand touchpoints – website, social media, internal documents, and any regular engagement opportunities. Does everything align with your core values? Does it tell a cohesive story? Remove the noise, streamline the message, and let your brand’s true essence shine through.

3. Align the inside with the outside

Once you’ve detoxed your internal ecosystem, ensure it aligns with your external representation. Are your communication materials consistent with your employee experience? Are you confident that engagement with external stakeholders aligns with how you want to be perceived? Remember, every interaction, from recruitment, stakeholder engagement and customer service, is a brand touchpoint. Bridge the gap between what you say and what you do, and your brand will radiate authenticity.

4. Make detoxing a habit, not just a January fling

While a new year offers a natural reset, brand health requires ongoing maintenance. Schedule regular internal audits, encourage open communication, and celebrate internal wins alongside external successes. Remember, your brand is a living thing, constantly evolving and adapting. Embrace the continuous evolution, and your company will become a beacon of authenticity in a world of fleeting trends.

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At H/Advisors Cicero, we regularly work with businesses to assess how companies are perceived in the wider media and business community. We often, however, find that the real stakeholders driving this perception are internal audiences. Whether that be employees of a large organisation, those who sit on company boards or members of an association, understanding sentiment internally will help to refocus efforts on promoting your true values.

Through our in-house campaigns and research team, we can explore real sentiments and feedback from internal stakeholders which can help you understand whether the values of your company are truly reflected through internal perception. Our experienced communications team has helped lead many internal messaging workshops for member organisations, large companies and businesses that have recently engaged in M&A activity.

To find out how we can guide your organisation through an internal brand overhaul get in touch