The rise of the AfD: A warning sign for mainstream politics?
28 February 2025
Germany’s election results and the broader shift to the right
The recent German elections offer insight into a broader political shift that could foreshadow the UK’s trajectory. Across Europe and beyond, right-wing populism is gaining ground, with leaders like Donald Trump regaining support and influential figures such as Elon Musk endorsing right-wing parties. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) exemplifies this momentum, securing around 20% of the vote — its strongest performance since entering the Bundestag in 2017.
Key takeaways from the German election
The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, winning just 16% of the vote, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged as the largest party with 30%, despite its worst result in decades. Meanwhile, the Left Party made a surprising comeback, rising to 8.8% after polling at just 3% in December. Notably, it outperformed all other parties among 18-24-year-olds, securing 25% of the youth vote, even ahead of the AfD at 21%. This reflects increasing political polarisation, with voters moving further apart ideologically. Gender-based voting differences have also emerged, with women leaning more towards the left and men more towards the right, something we have observed in most major elections over the last year.
Another significant trend is the AfD’s expansion beyond its traditional strongholds in eastern Germany. Initially fueled by economic stagnation in the east, the party is now gaining traction in western industrial regions, where rising energy costs and economic challenges are taking a toll. This geographic shift underscores deeper changes in German politics that go beyond regional divides.
AfD as part of the Government?
Coalition negotiations are expected to last until Easter, with uncertainty over potential alliances. The CDU has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, while the CSU, its Bavarian counterpart, has viewed partnering with the SPD unfavourably. This may also push the SPD to shift its stance on key issues like immigration to secure a governing coalition.
Mainstream parties have long refused cooperation with the AfD due to its extremist positions, however, the party’s growing popularity is testing this stance. If excluded from government, the AfD could position itself as a political martyr, further expanding its appeal among disillusioned voters. It has already begun framing its exclusion as undemocratic, a strategy that could strengthen its support. However, as of now all other political parties have denied wanting to collaborate with the AfD.
Business and political responses
Backlash against the AfD has come not just from political opponents but also from major businesses. Companies such as Mercedes and Deutsche Bank have taken an unusually public stance against right-wing extremism, with certain companies openly opposing the AfD. This rare corporate intervention highlights broader concerns about the potential impact of far-right policies on economic stability and social cohesion.
Parallels to the UK
Much like in Germany, the UK is grappling with political disillusionment following the pandemic and the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. Rising energy prices, inflation, and wage stagnation have left many feeling abandoned by traditional parties, creating an opening for alternatives like Reform UK. Similar to the AfD, Reform UK offers simplified solutions to complex issues and appeals to public frustration. The key difference is that the AfD has had over a decade to establish itself, whereas Reform UK is still in its early stages. However, the AfD’s success among younger voters mirrors a trend in the UK, where right-wing populism is increasingly resonating with disenfranchised youth. It remains to be seen if Reform UK can form more coherent positions for policy issues and form a more unified front as the AfD has managed in Germany.
What the rise of the AfD this means for the future
Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, is the election’s overall winner despite his party’s weakened performance. As Germany’s incoming Chancellor, his skepticism of Trump may lead to an interesting dynamic with Keir Starmer, despite being on different ends of the political spectrum. With Labour positioning itself as a stabilising force against right-wing populism and continued alliance against Russia, Starmer could find an unlikely ally in Merz despite their ideological differences.
The outcome of the German elections serves as a lesson — and a warning — for British politics. Just as the CDU and SPD are struggling to retain mainstream voters, the UK’s Conservative and Labour parties face similar challenges. Economic insecurity, immigration concerns, and political disillusionment have pushed many toward alternatives like Reform UK. If Labour and the Conservatives fail to offer compelling solutions, they risk losing their grip on power. The rise of the AfD highlights the dangers of ignoring public frustration — when mainstream parties fail to respond, voters will seek alternatives, even those on the political fringes.
If you would like to talk more about our analysis, please do get in touch.
27 February 2025
Today, Keir Starmer will travel to Washington D.C. for his first face-to-face meeting with President Trump since his return to the White House.
For Starmer and his Government, the stakes could barely be higher, as the US pushes ahead with controversial peace talks with Russia, from which Europe and Ukraine have both been excluded, and prepares to implement new tariffs that could impact British exports.
A month ago, both Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer assumed that the focus of their White House conversations would be trade and tariffs. Now, while those subjects are still on the agenda, the overriding issue is the future of Ukraine and the United States’ strategic commitment to the security of democratic Europe.
In the last fortnight, the worst fears of European leaders about Trump have come to pass. The President called Putin, initiated moves to bring him in from the diplomatic cold and offered Russia major concessions over Ukraine without consulting any of America’s allies. Trump’s personal animosity towards Zelenskyy (which dates back several years to Zelenskyy’s refusal to launch an investigation into what Trump claimed was criminal action by the Biden family) has become more open and vicious. Defense Secretary Pete Hesgeth and Vice President JD Vance have spoken in terms that brought into question not just America’s commitment to Ukraine but its willingness to defend Europe as a whole against Russian aggression. On Monday, in an astonishing UN General Assembly vote, the United States voted with Russia, Belarus and North Korea against a European-sponsored motion on the third anniversary of the 2022 invasion, to criticise Russian aggression and call for peace.
This week, in Macron’s own visit to the Oval Office, the French President navigated the tightrope relatively well – although what was clear is that the US and Europe remain an ocean apart. Macron and Starmer will have shared tactics for handling Trump and will speak again before the UK Prime Minister arrives at the White House. Both have decided against megaphone diplomacy. But both have quietly but firmly made clear their disagreements with the White House: asserting the truth that Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine; defending Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as a democratically elected leader; rebutting the assertion that the United States has spent more money than European countries in supporting Kyiv.
In private, both European leaders have three principal objectives: to try to get a better understanding of Trump’s underlying aims; to demonstrate to him that European nations will take action, and swiftly, to beef up their contribution both to their own collective security and to future security guarantees for Ukraine; and to persuade him that it is in his own political interest and the national interest of the United States to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position to negotiate a peace settlement. Trump frequently denounces Biden’s retreat from Kabul as a disaster for America’s standing in the world. Macron and Starmer will try to convince him that a bad deal for Ukraine would encourage would-be aggressors elsewhere and be seen globally as a defeat for the West and further evidence of what Xi Jinping describes as the decline of US power and influence.
Starmer and Macron know that on even the most optimistic assumptions it will take Europe years to substitute for American capabilities within NATO. They judge that evidence of greater European commitment stands the best chance of keeping the US involved as the ultimate guarantor of European security while building up Europe’s ability to act without the US if necessary.
On economics, both leaders will want to explore whether a deal can be done that Trump would accept as a win, but which did not come at a big cost to European economies. They will talk about how a trade war could make it harder for Europe to increase defence spending. Starmer will want to test whether a UK exemption from tariffs directed at the EU might be possible. Both leaders will explore in their meetings how Trump sees digital taxation and regulation and assess the extent to which he has bought into Musk’s attempt to harness US coercive diplomacy against EU and UK measures.
Whatever the outcome of the White House meetings, European democracies will spend more on defence. Stock prices for defence companies are likely to remain strong, especially after Friedrich Merz’s comments about the need for Europe to become independent of the US for its defence and his call for the outgoing Bundestag (where no one-third blocking minority exists) to consider lifting Germany’s constitutional debt brake to permit higher defence spending, which will reinforce this trend.
If you would like to talk more about our analysis, please do get in touch.
24 February 2025
This weekend, the Labour Party gathered in Glasgow for its annual Scottish conference. Despite achieving a superb result north of the border in last year’s General Election, the mood at the conference was coloured much more by the current polls which suggest the SNP is on course to once again emerge as the largest party at next year’s Holyrood elections.
I spent the day at the conference on Friday, attending fringe meetings and watching Anas Sarwar’s keynote speech in the conference hall, before attending our H/Advisors Cicero dinner which brought together five of Labour’s 2024 intake of MPs with guests from business and the media. While our dinner was held under the Chatham House rule, here are my five key reflections from the day as a whole and what they tell us about where Labour is at both in Scotland and across the UK.
1. Optimism has been tempered but not extinguished
The Scottish polls have shifted, and the SNP is back on top. Nevertheless, there is still belief that Labour can win in 2026. The need to be more clear about the achievements of the UK Labour government came up time and again – the increased minimum wage, employment rights, GB Energy and a record funding settlement for Scotland to boost investment in public services were the policies most frequently cited by Labour Parliamentarians. In addition, Labour clearly recognise that they need to shift the narrative ahead of 2026 to remind voters who the real incumbents are in the Scottish elections. Painting the SNP as “tired” and “out of ideas” after two decades in office will clearly be a central pillar of Scottish Labour’s campaign as it seeks to replicate the “time for change” narrative that worked effectively in 2024. Labour also remains confident in the quality of their digital and ground operations and are likely to be able to outspend the SNP next year.
2. Anas Sarwar is a major asset but needs the right message
Almost everyone you speak to at a Scottish Labour gathering agrees that Anas Sarwar is a politician with the slightly intangible “star quality”. He is a gifted speaker and has a way with people, whether voters, colleagues or journalists. His speech on Friday, however, felt a little light, both on policy and an overarching vision. There were some potentially popular announcements – for instance on scrapping peak rail fares and a commitment for GP appointments within 48 hours – and some effective attack lines on SNP waste and incompetence. He framed the speech as his “application for the post of First Minister”, but at this stage, it didn’t yet feel like there is a fully formed pitch to voters. That’s not too big a problem for now but refining the message in the next 12 months will be vital.
3. Reform UK is on people’s minds
Neither UKIP nor the Brexit Party ever made any serious inroads in Scotland, but there is concern that Reform could. In polls, Reform is more or less tied with the Conservatives in third place in Scotland, and numerous MPs reported that the issues being pushed by Reform – most notably around migration – have begun to be regularly cited on the doorstep in their constituencies. The lack of leadership or infrastructure in Scotland for Reform would appear to be a barrier, but on the other hand their digital targeting is clearly effective and achieving cut-through. In a fringe meeting on Friday, Pat McFadden, Labour’s 2024 election coordinator, said that Reform cannot be allowed to get away with simply being “commentators” and that their policies (for instance on the future of the NHS) need to be put under the microscope. Squeezing the Reform vote will be a key objective if Labour is to close the gap on the SNP.
4. Independence is not on people’s minds
I’ve attended a lot of Scottish party conferences and other political gatherings over the last 15 years or so and I cannot remember one where independence was so rarely mentioned. Partly that’s because there is so much else going on both domestically and internationally, but it also reflects the relative lack of emphasis being placed on the subject now by the SNP. Even if John Swinney is able to lead his party to a win next year, it is unlikely to lead to any great renewed push towards independence, at least in the short term.
5. The Musk Effect was on show
While nobody was overtly mentioning Elon Musk as an inspiration, the announcement by Sarwar that he would establish a department for government efficiency in Scotland was telling. He highlighted that Scotland now has more quangos than MSPs. These themes were recurring in other meetings throughout the day. Pat McFadden spoke of the need for change in how the state works and ensure people get “more bang for their buck”. Other speakers highlighted that taxpayers do not want to feel that they are simply funding bureaucrats, while at our Cicero dinner we heard significant discussion of the role that technology can play in improving delivery in services like the NHS. Expect government efficiency and cutting down on waste to be a major theme for Labour both in Scotland and across the UK in the months and years ahead.
This was a fascinating conference and one that suggests there is still all to play for in the run up to 2026.
If you would like to talk more about our analysis, please do get in touch.
18 February 2025
Not all press coverage is created equal. A single mention in the right publication can carry more weight than a dozen elsewhere, yet traditional Public Relations (PR) metrics often treat them the same.
Too often, there is still a tendency to focus on volume – vanity metrics like media hits, impressions, and outdated measures like Advertising Value Equivalency (AVE) persist in certain corners of the industry despite their flaws. Clipping counts might look impressive on paper, but they don’t answer the real question: is the message landing with the right people?
Clients are better served by consultants who ask: is this working? Success isn’t simply about securing media coverage – the true measure lies in whether PR efforts align with and drive business objectives.
Moving beyond vanity metrics in PR
Effective PR and communications should always come back to long-term objectives. It’s not just about who can shout the loudest – it’s about making sure the right people are listening in the first place. In other words, collating media mentions, share of voice (SOV) and sentiment analysis is pointless if it doesn’t also translate into action from stakeholders, policymakers, or customers.
Shifting the focus to outcomes provides a much clearer picture. While impact often builds gradually, a client focused on securing a policy change or shifting regulatory attitudes may not need to see their name in the Financial Times to know they’ve succeeded. A well-placed intervention in a specific trade publication or direct outreach to the right regulatory body may sway a select committee discussion or steer a regulatory review without making a big splash.
Effective PR isn’t about reaching as many people as possible – it’s about reaching the right people and creating a ripple effect that moves the business forward.
Aligning PR with business objectives for real impact
PR and communications are often used interchangeably, but they’re not the same. Any agency worth its weight will do more than secure press coverage – it connects PR with a broader strategy to drive tangible outcomes. An integrated approach ensures that media relations work in tandem with internal messaging, stakeholder engagement, and long-term reputation management. This alignment maximises impact and ensures consistency across all channels.
In most cases, integrated agencies are better equipped to measure success in a way that reflects real impact. Those that work across multiple disciplines – from corporate affairs to digital strategy – bring a more nuanced understanding of how PR efforts feed into broader business objectives, and crucially, they are less likely to lean on media volume as a proof point.
Effective PR: More than just media hits
Measuring PR shouldn’t stop at counting clippings. When done right, PR aligns with corporate strategy, becoming a true driver of long-term value. To get there, businesses should:
- set clear KPIs tied to tangible outcomes,
- prioritise quality over quantity in media placements, and
- integrate PR efforts with broader business goals.
Stay focused on measuring impact – whether it’s a shift in perception, policy, or business performance – and adjust your strategy to keep driving meaningful results.
Get in touch at Comms@cicero-group.com
12 February 2025
In the run-up to the Scottish Labour Conference (and Cicero’s dinner event there) later this month, Rhoda Macdonald and Simon Fitzpatrick return to assess the political atmosphere in Scotland.
Covering the fortunes of Labour since the General Election, and Anas Sarwar’s position, as well as the re-establishment of the SNP, they analyse where things are heading as we look forward to Holyrood elections in 2026.
Email our team at ukpublicaffairs@h-advisors.global
10 February 2025
From Scottish politics to the impact of Reform UK and Donald Trump on the Labour Government, 2025 is going to present some big issues in the world of UK public affairs.
John Rowland, Senior Partner & UK Consulting Lead, and Elizabeth Tomlin, Partner and UK Public Affairs Team Lead are back, introducing this second series of our popular analysis videos, looking forward to a busy year in the world of politics.
To get in touch with our team email ukpublicaffairs@h-advisors.global
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