30 April 2025

Labour seeks stability, Tories brace for losses, and Reform eyes breakthrough

Local elections are typically seen as a litmus test for the government of the day. However, in 2025, commentators are viewing these local elections as a litmus test for the state of British politics. On 1^st May, the UK will see the smallest number of council seats contested since 1975, with the English Devolution White Paper resulting in the postponement of elections in nine council areas. But, the significance of these elections could be far from small.

Current polling suggests a highly competitive race, with 1,641 councillors to be elected across 23 councils: 14 county councils, 8 unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough. Doncaster, the sole metropolitan borough in this cycle, will elect all 55 councillors and its mayor — a key Labour defence. Four combined authority areas will also hold mayoral elections, including inaugural votes in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire, which will be a priority target for Reform UK. The Runcorn & Helsby by-election, prompted by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury will also take place on Thursday.

The debate has intensified over the possibility of a Conservative-Reform pact to ‘unite the right’, and whether a coalition should take place on a national level. Despite Leader Kemi Badenoch disputing this would be a possibility in recent months, over the weekend she conceded that deals could be done locally. The rationale for this being that many Reform candidates are defected Tory councillors that will have established relationships on a local level. However, the Tory mayor of Tees Valley Lord Ben Houchen and wannabe conservative leader Robert Jenrick, set their stall out this weekend that a deal with Nigel Farage should be considered on a national level to keep Labour out of office at the next general election. 

Elections taking place on Thursday

For the Government, these elections mark the first opportunity to gauge their local appeal since securing a majority last summer. The Conservatives face a daunting challenge, defending over 900 seats in ‘Tory shires’ won during Boris Johnson’s peak popularity in 2021. These seats are now under siege from both Labour and Reform, with the latter aiming to convert rising poll numbers into tangible gains — winning councillors, gaining control, and solidifying their foothold in the British political landscape.

Whilst the local elections on 1st May presents a pivotal test for both Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader, Nigel Farage faces the ultimate test of credibility among political leaders. Reform UK aims to secure over 200 council seats, focusing on areas like Durham, Doncaster, Lancashire, Kent, and Lincolnshire. Additionally, the Runcorn and Helsby by-election stands as a pivotal goal for Reform, with polls indicating they could snatch victory, raising their total number of MPs to five.

A series of victories nationwide would solidify Reform’s status as a political force, but it would also raise critical questions about Farage’s leadership style and provide a practical test of whether his party is truly equipped to govern.

Labour under pressure 

Labour is cautiously optimistic about the upcoming local elections but is tempering expectations. Historically, Labour has not performed well in most of the areas going to the polls on 1^st May, but having fewer seats at risk means it may avoid significant electoral damage.

Labour’s primary focus is on defending two mayoralties it has held since 2021 – the West of England and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough – and winning the newly created mayoralty for Hull and East Yorkshire. While defending either mayoralty will not be easy, the West of England mayoralty is particularly vulnerable. The outgoing Mayor and MP, Dan Norris, was recently arrested on suspicion of rape and child sex offences, leaving the new candidate and campaigners with difficult questions on the doorstep about what Labour did or did not know about the alleged offences.  

The Liberal Democrats and Greens pose a threat to Labour’s position, having secured significant portions of the vote in the 2021 West of England mayoral election and performing well locally last year. The Greens gained ten council seats and unseated Labour Shadow Minister Thangam Debbonaire in Bristol Central during the General Election. 

The battle for the mayoralty in Hull and East Yorkshire is shaping up as a straight two-way fight between Labour and Reform, and according to Labour polling, they’re neck-and-neck. It is certainly an interesting election between an establishment and non-establishment character. The Reform candidate, Luke Campbell, is a popular local resident and former gold-winning Team GB boxer who is up against the Labour candidate, Margaret Pinder, an experienced policy-focused local politician and solicitor. A Reform win would demonstrate the vulnerability in Labour’s newly reformed “red wall” in the north of England.  

Losing these mayoral elections would be seen as a significant setback for Labour. Given the substantial resources being invested in these campaigns, such losses could highlight a material impact of the Chancellor’s recent fiscal statement and spark criticism of national party policy by Labour activists.

A moment of truth for the Tories

With the most to lose in these local elections, the spotlight is firmly on the Conservative Party’s performance at the ballot box and the future of its leader, Kemi Badenoch. 16 of the 23 county councils, unitary authorities, and metropolitan districts up for election currently have Conservative majorities. 

The last time these council seats were contested was in the aftermath of the pandemic, following Boris Johnson’s successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine. The Tory party achieved their best night for 13 years on the National Equivalent Vote, which works out the national picture based on the local results. Defending the success of 2021 will prove challenging for the Conservatives, who have halved their vote share since 2021, and public sentiment towards the party remains unfavourable. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is fielding candidates in nearly every seat, which risks splitting the Conservative vote and allowing more moderate parties to gain ground. 

The real battle ground for Badenoch will be Kent County Council, which has been Conservative run for most of its existence. Since its creation in1974, it has had a Conservative leader for all but four years when, between 1993 and 1997, the authority was led by joint leaders from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Tory heartlands Staffordshire and Lincolnshire will also prove testing.

Badenoch, who has struggled to gain traction and support since her election, has warned her party that they face “very difficult” local elections, but it is unclear what the outcome could be on Badenoch herself. After a turbulent few years and a rolling door of leaders, it is likely that the Conservative party will want to maintain consistency for now, but whatever the results, the pressure will be on for Badenoch to make some real progress in the coming months.

Reform’s Reckoning: Farage’s Big Test

Reform has emerged as the only party to experience a significant surge in popularity since the 2024 general election. A wave of disillusioned Conservative voters has shifted their allegiance to the party, with few returning to the Tories under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. Farage has described the May elections as the “first major hurdle” on Reform’s path to power, with the party contesting nearly all 1,600 council seats, six metro and single-authority mayoral races, and the Runcorn and Helsby by-election — an ambitious expansion compared to the 2024 local elections.

Reform aims to capitalise on their momentum by targeting council seats in areas traditionally dominated by the Conservatives but where a significant vote share was lost to Reform last July. Opportunities to exploit dissatisfaction with Labour are more limited. However, Farage is determined to unsettle the Government by positioning Reform as the primary challenger to the Conservatives in key regions and threatening Labour’s hold on Doncaster Metropolitan Council.

The party made notable gains in the Lincolnshire County Council area during the general election, securing several second-place finishes and capturing the safest Conservative seat in the country. Recent defections of local councillors to Reform have further bolstered their presence. If the party manages to strip the Tories of their majority — or even take control of the Council — it could solidify their position in Lincolnshire for future elections.

However, whilst a strong showing nationwide would establish Reform as a formidable political force, their ability to govern, if elected, will be a crucial test if they want to be a serious contender in the next general election.  With many questions raised in the past year about Reform’s vetting procedures, May 1^st will bring intense scrutiny to potential Reform mayors and even greater expectations for councils under their leadership.

An opportunity for Liberal Democrats and the Greens

When launching his local election campaign, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, declared his mission to replace the Conservatives as the “party of Middle England”, with the aim of taking second place in local government coverage. The Liberal Democrats have majority control in 37 councils, 12 short of the Conservatives’ current threshold of 49. They’re seeking to build their base in Tory strongholds such as Essex and Kent and other “Tory shires”, including Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire, where recent by-elections have favoured them.

The Liberal Democrats are also going full steam ahead against Reform in the pre-election period, announcing a “Farage fighting fund”. The fund demonstrates a bid to quash the threat from the far-right party in key battlegrounds, including Devon, Cornwall and Shropshire, and has received over £100,000 in donations. Contrastingly, it has been suggested that Reform UK has spent more than £2m on a personalised mailshot campaign to postal voters, leading to Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem deputy leader challenging Farage to be transparent on donations. When it comes to the Liberal Democrat-Reform battle, the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoralty race will be one to watch, with both parties fighting tooth and nail to secure their candidate as the first-ever mayor of the new Combined Authority.

As for the Greens, another party that had much to celebrate after winning four parliamentary seats at the 2024 General Election, a focus remains on incrementally increasing influence in central urban areas. The Greens will be looking to leverage Labour’s welfare reforms and wavering on environmental policy to make further inroads with the disgruntled progressive voter. Their key test will be the mayoral election in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and West of England combined authority. The Greens currently control Bristol Council and have faced criticism of their governance to date amidst rising council taxes and perceived falling services, which could impact their vote share. A reminder to all challenger parties that campaigning for seats is one thing, but governing is something else entirely.

To conclude, the elections on 1^st May could mark a seismic shift in British politics and challenge each party to ask some big questions. Labour might have to assess who their core voters are in 2025, Reform could be forced to contemplate how to govern in practice, and the Conservatives may be forced to ask whether the only way is up.

2 April 2025

Last week the Chancellor painted a bleak economic outlook with stagnant growth and tighter public spending – only the MOD and DHSC are receiving notable investment from the Treasury. In return, the Treasury expects DHSC to be an engine for economic growth: getting more people back into work and helping them stay in work. However, as it stands reorganising NHS England and moderately increasing investment is unlikely to be enough, especially in the face of an ageing population. A more ambitious approach is needed—one that recognises the role employers can play in supporting the nation’s health.

To address the number of people out of work due to ill health – today far higher than European counterparts – the Government has also announced significant welfare reforms. Their solution is to rethink our welfare system and introduce cuts to parts of Universal Credit and the Personal Independence Payment, a move which has already been criticised by health organisations.

Should businesses bear some responsibility for their employees’ health?

An alternative solution would be to rethink what role employers, employees and the Government have in keeping us healthy. The UK Government’s ongoing employment law reforms could be a powerful tool to incentivise businesses to play a bigger role in workforce health. Yet, instead of aligning policy changes with the need to reduce long-term sickness absence, current reforms risk adding costs to businesses without offering them the right support or incentives to keep their employees well. Even with the Employment Rights Bill causing growing concern amongst business, earlier this week Angela Rayner doubled down, tying the reforms personally to the Prime Minister.

Germany and other European countries take a different approach, embedding occupational health responsibilities into employment law frameworks, ensuring that businesses actively contribute to workforce wellbeing. Roughly 86% of the German population is enrolled in statutory health insurance alongside universal occupational health services. Other European countries follow similar frameworks, recognising that keeping people healthy is not just the responsibility of the state but also of employers.

Time to rethink the Employment Rights Bill?

If the UK government is serious about getting more people back into work and tackling long-term sickness, it should rethink the scope of its employment law reforms—moving beyond cost burdens to policies that empower businesses to be part of the solution.

This approach might not be as radical as you might first think. Recent polling has shown that 83% of the British public think employers have a responsibility in helping support employees to manage their long-term health conditions to stay in employment. Younger generations are also far more open to accessing healthcare outside the NHS. Many businesses, particularly larger corporates, are already stepping up, offering occupational health services and employee assistance programs. This growing appetite among businesses highlights the role employers are taking in maintaining their employees’ wellbeing.

Sir Charlie Mayfield is looking at exactly the issue of ‘Keeping Britain Working’ and his discovery has already highlighted an increasing role for employers in keeping their employees well. This independent review has the scope to go further – examining European models of employer-led healthcare and radically rethinking the role of UK employers in keeping their workforce healthy. Our European neighbours have shown that incentivising employers to maintain healthy workplaces is a far more effective long-term solution than politically contentious welfare cuts or employment law that imposes growth restrictions.

For a Government struggling to driving economic growth and improve the nation’s health, embracing employer-led healthcare is an obvious step forward. Rather than relying on welfare cuts that will likely increase hardship and strain the NHS further, policymakers should focus on creating a system that rewards businesses for investing in employee health. The solution is clear: if Britain is to tackle its economic and health challenges, it must rethink the role of employers in building a healthier, more resilient workforce.

Get in touch with our health team here

4 March 2025

Last week, Amanda Pritchard, Chief Executive of NHS England, rather unceremoniously announced that she would step down within a month. Shortly after the announcement, Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, made it clear whose decision this was by saying, “we will…require a new relationship between the Department of Health and Social Care and NHS England”. It’s fair to say that this has been expected since Streeting first walked into DHSC in July 2024. He almost immediately set out that DHSC and his team would lead on the 10-year NHSE plan – previously these plans have been written by NHSE leaders.

Wes Streeting: The NHS Reformer

Streeting has set out a clear trajectory to significantly reform NHSE. First, he put an end to the dispute with Resident doctors, stopping strikes in NHSE. This was achieved with a lot of investment in resident doctors’ pay, but also by asking NHSE to significantly reform resident doctor working practices, one of his first major changes. Secondly, Streeting asked Lord Darzi to set out how broken NHSE is, buying himself some time to work out how to fix it. Finally, he will set out exactly how to fix NHSE in Spring 2025.

This clear decision from Streeting to change NHS leadership, which was sped up by Pritchard’s recent underwhelming performance at the Health Select Committee. With sizeable reforms to the NHS now expected on the way, and Streeting needs an NHS CEO fully on board with his plans.

For now, Sir Jim Mackey is the “transition” chief executive. Sir Jim will be well known to most, now running Newcastle hospitals. From 2021 to 2024, he was leading on NHSE’s elective recovery, one of the biggest jobs in NHSE. He was also in the running to be CEO of NHSE when Amanda Pritchard was appointed.

Sir Jim is seen as a more willing reformer, but importantly when Sir Jim ran elective recovery, he was clear that he is open to NHSE working closer with the Government. But the title “transition” suggests he might not be a permanent appointment, by his own admission he will be in post for one to two years.

The challenges Streeting faces next

Streeting is looking after the second biggest budget in Whitehall, it’s one of the few that is going up, while many are being cut. Consequently, he is going to be under enormous political pressure to deliver results and get waitlists down. Although he’s had some early success (waiting lists have now fallen for four months in a row) longer-term success will be a challenge. The average age of our population continues to rise and although Streeting might have been awarded an increase in spending by Rachel Reeves, the confident BMA will be looking for their fair share. The RCN have also said that the touted 2.8% pay increase for nurses would be an insult. To alleviate the pressure in this transition time Streeting will likely be asking Sir Jim to use his recent experience to laser focus on getting the elective waitlist down, instead of crafting and then driving the reforms that Streeting’s team is building in DHSC.

Streeting has also recently expressed his frustration at the duplication of roles in both DHSC and NHSE, which is often resulting in disagreements on policy. To tackle this, he has suggested shrinking NHSE and merging some teams with DHSC. The decision from Streeting to replace an NHSE CEO, and his message to Sir Jim that he has “a remit to radically reshape” ties, shows a clear reset and reframing of the DHSC and NHSE relationship, which had broken down. Combined with Streeting’s desire to cut the number of NHS staff, it’s clear that power now lies in the Department.

Some have interpreted this decision as a “power grab”, or something to keep health journalists busy while they wait for Streeting’s 10-year plan, or an expression of his pure frustration at the pace of change in NHSE. It is likely to be a combination of all three, but it certainly does show an increasing politicisation of the role of NHSE CEO, which previous NHS reforms have attempted to stop.

Get in touch with our health team here

9 April 2024

How can society manage the cross-cutting needs of an aging population?

On 9 April we convened a panel event to explore how we prepare society to cope as advances in modern medicine enable citizens to live longer. From public health to work and retirement, they examined implications of a hundred-year life and what it means for Government, industry and the wider population.  

Speakers:

• Yvonne Braun – Director of Long-term Savings, Health and Protection, Association of British Insurers  
• Chris Thomas – Head of the Commission on Health and Prosperity, Institute for Public Policy Research
• Steven Cameron – Public Affairs Director, Aegon 
• Karine Jegard – Head of Medical and Scientific Communication, HAVAS SO

Chaired by H/Advisors Cicero CEO, Mark Twigg.

As babies born today may be expected to live to 100, how do we prepare society to cope with the needs of an ageing population? From increasing responsibility to looking after our own health, to creating the right housing mix and social care settings for elder life, to managing expectations about work & retirement, this demographic change will have cross cutting impacts.

For more information please email emma.turnbull@h-advisors.global.

11 January 2024

There are several knowns and unknowns in politics this year, and Cicero’s 2024 Look Ahead document will help you navigate what to expect in an election year in the UK. This short introduction gives you a snapshot of the sector-specific deep dives the full document makes into Financial Services, Tech, Health and Energy/Net Zero, and the international outlook.

To find out more and receive a copy of our full analysis, please email UKPublicAffairs@h-advisors.global

What do we know?

We know the 2024 General Election campaign will begin this year at the very least. In his New Year address on 4 January, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it’s his “working assumption” that the General Election will take place in the second half of 2024. So, there will be no avoiding the ‘E’ word in 2024.

Regardless of when the General Election takes place, local elections will be on 2 May. This includes Metro Mayoral elections and London Mayoral elections, alongside elections in 36 Metropolitan boroughs, 62 Unitary Authorities, 164 District Councils and the London Assembly. There’s that ‘E’ word again.

We know Parliament’s make-up will change dramatically whoever gets the keys to Number 10. 83 MPs have so far announced they will not stand again at the next General Election – 52 from the Conservatives, 14 from Labour, 9 from the SNP, and 8 others. This is lower than the number of MPs that stood down ahead of the 2015 General Election (90) but is likely to increase as we approach election day.

We know elections taking place across the world this year will have a profound effect on global politics. Over 40 countries will head to the polls in 2024 – including the US, Russia, Ukraine, and India – meaning 1.5 billion people will vote.

What’s still unknown?

The General Election could be held anytime until 28 January 2025, so the 2024 political calendar could be disrupted or remain business as usual. You’ll be pleased to hear the possibility of Party Conferences in September/October and another Autumn Statement remain on the cards.

The Government’s ability to control the legislative agenda remains in the balance. Following the introduction of the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill in December 2023, Sunak avoided a major rebellion at Second Reading but will face tougher tests as the Bill progresses in 2024. Its controversial nature means the legislation could change the course of the General Election or further weaken Rishi’s premiership.

And finally, the polls still have time to go either way. Will Labour Leader Keir Starmer be able to keep his poll lead throughout the election campaign to secure an outright majority? Or will the polls narrow if Sunak can put more pennies in voters’ pockets, see flights take off for Rwanda, and cut NHS waiting lists?

These are all matters that businesses and public affairs professionals will need to be prepared to navigate in 2024. Cicero’s fantastic team of consultants will be on hand to do just that. We’ll shortly be launching our General Election website as part of this.

Request your copy of our full 2024 Look Ahead document UKPublicAffairs@h-advisors.global

9 January 2024

At the start of a new political year, Emma Turnbull looks at the state of health and social care policies from the Conservative Government and Labour Opposition. As well as marking what the parties’ current policies are, this document offers our own views of how the NHS, mental health, and other plans might evolve once General Election manifestos begin to solidify.

To discuss health and social care policy, please get in touch emma.turnbull@h-advisors.global

Read more of our Healthcare insights here. To request a downloadable version of the tracker document get in touch.