28 February 2025

Germany’s election results and the broader shift to the right

The recent German elections offer insight into a broader political shift that could foreshadow the UK’s trajectory. Across Europe and beyond, right-wing populism is gaining ground, with leaders like Donald Trump regaining support and influential figures such as Elon Musk endorsing right-wing parties. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) exemplifies this momentum, securing around 20% of the vote — its strongest performance since entering the Bundestag in 2017.

Key takeaways from the German election

The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, winning just 16% of the vote, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged as the largest party with 30%, despite its worst result in decades. Meanwhile, the Left Party made a surprising comeback, rising to 8.8% after polling at just 3% in December. Notably, it outperformed all other parties among 18-24-year-olds, securing 25% of the youth vote, even ahead of the AfD at 21%. This reflects increasing political polarisation, with voters moving further apart ideologically. Gender-based voting differences have also emerged, with women leaning more towards the left and men more towards the right, something we have observed in most major elections over the last year.

Another significant trend is the AfD’s expansion beyond its traditional strongholds in eastern Germany. Initially fueled by economic stagnation in the east, the party is now gaining traction in western industrial regions, where rising energy costs and economic challenges are taking a toll. This geographic shift underscores deeper changes in German politics that go beyond regional divides.

AfD as part of the Government?

Coalition negotiations are expected to last until Easter, with uncertainty over potential alliances. The CDU has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, while the CSU, its Bavarian counterpart, has viewed partnering with the SPD unfavourably. This may also push the SPD to shift its stance on key issues like immigration to secure a governing coalition.

Mainstream parties have long refused cooperation with the AfD due to its extremist positions, however, the party’s growing popularity is testing this stance. If excluded from government, the AfD could position itself as a political martyr, further expanding its appeal among disillusioned voters. It has already begun framing its exclusion as undemocratic, a strategy that could strengthen its support. However, as of now all other political parties have denied wanting to collaborate with the AfD.

Business and political responses

Backlash against the AfD has come not just from political opponents but also from major businesses. Companies such as Mercedes and Deutsche Bank have taken an unusually public stance against right-wing extremism, with certain companies openly opposing the AfD. This rare corporate intervention highlights broader concerns about the potential impact of far-right policies on economic stability and social cohesion.

Parallels to the UK

Much like in Germany, the UK is grappling with political disillusionment following the pandemic and the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. Rising energy prices, inflation, and wage stagnation have left many feeling abandoned by traditional parties, creating an opening for alternatives like Reform UK. Similar to the AfD, Reform UK offers simplified solutions to complex issues and appeals to public frustration. The key difference is that the AfD has had over a decade to establish itself, whereas Reform UK is still in its early stages. However, the AfD’s success among younger voters mirrors a trend in the UK, where right-wing populism is increasingly resonating with disenfranchised youth. It remains to be seen if Reform UK can form more coherent positions for policy issues and form a more unified front as the AfD has managed in Germany.

What the rise of the AfD this means for the future

Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, is the election’s overall winner despite his party’s weakened performance. As Germany’s incoming Chancellor, his skepticism of Trump may lead to an interesting dynamic with Keir Starmer, despite being on different ends of the political spectrum. With Labour positioning itself as a stabilising force against right-wing populism and continued alliance against Russia, Starmer could find an unlikely ally in Merz despite their ideological differences.

The outcome of the German elections serves as a lesson — and a warning — for British politics. Just as the CDU and SPD are struggling to retain mainstream voters, the UK’s Conservative and Labour parties face similar challenges. Economic insecurity, immigration concerns, and political disillusionment have pushed many toward alternatives like Reform UK. If Labour and the Conservatives fail to offer compelling solutions, they risk losing their grip on power. The rise of the AfD highlights the dangers of ignoring public frustration — when mainstream parties fail to respond, voters will seek alternatives, even those on the political fringes.

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