4 July 2024

Barring a seismic miscalculation from every polling house in the UK, on Friday morning the country will wake up to a Labour government. At this point, the focus will swiftly shift from campaigning to governing.

H/Advisors Cicero commissioned a nationally representative survey of 1,000 members of the general public that shines a light on what the electorate expect from their future Government^[1]. Below we explore four key findings:

Voter priorities: The big-ticket issues

The NHS, the economy and immigration have dominated the election campaign. These issues will also dominate the agenda of a new government. When forced to choose one policy area the public wish to see a new government “get right” 41% say health & social care, 21% say the economy and 16% say immigration. But did a little deeper and there is clear generational divide when it comes to the second and third big ticket issues.

The balancing act of priorities across generations:

• Health & social care is the “top” issue cited by all age groups, aside from 18-24s, where it comes a close second behind the Economy (35% vs 34%).
• Just 3% of 18-24s see immigration as the single most important issue. This is in stark contrast to 25% of 55–64-year-olds and 32% of those over 65.

Improving day-to-day quality of life

The last four years have been tumultuous for living standards. The pandemic, coupled with the cost-of-living crisis, have been heavy contributors to a decline in living standards. Inflation has thankfully eased, now at the target of 2%. But living standards have been left scarred, with food prices 25% higher than at the beginning of 2022^[2] and services inflation remaining stubbornly above the overall 2% target.

Our research suggests keeping a tight grip on inflation is a central expectation:

• Almost half (49%) want a new government to take further steps taken to keep inflation under control. 25–34-year-olds are most likely to see it as a priority (63%). This cohort – labelled “generation rent” – have seen rents increase by more than 11% a year^[3]. It is therefore understandable they want to see action from government to protect their spending power and ability to save for the future.

Alleviating a heavy tax burden is secondary to this and there is an acceptance that taxes will rise to improve public services:

• A central focus of the election campaign has been tax. The UK’s tax burden is the greatest since the Second World War. Just over a third (34%) of the general public want to see a reduction on the taxes paid by individuals.
• But an almost equal number (32%) would like to see more investment in public services funded through higher taxation.

Public optimism (and pressure)

Commentators have been unanimous in their assessment that the 2024 election hasn’t inspired. Despite this, there is strong feeling that change can be delivered.

There is a sense among the general public that things can improve, and quickly.

• In total, four in five (80%) expect changes made by a new government to have an impact on people’s everyday lives within the next 5 years.
• 13% expect to see change that impacts people before the end of 2024
• 30% expect to see change that impacts people in the next 1 – 2 years
• 36% expect to see change that impacts people by 5 years

Improvements are expected to be national, rather than local

As our Americans cousins say, “all politics is local”, while there is macro-optimism, the UK public has more subdued confidence that their local communities will reap the benefits of a new national government.

• 46% are confident the strength of the public sector in the UK will improve under a new government and 41% are confident that the overall prosperity of the UK will improve.
• But that same confidence does not transfer to local or micro-politics. Just 20% are confident the lives of people in their community will improve and 15% are confident their own life will improve as a result of a new administration.

Overall, whatever the outcome over the next 24 hours, our findings point towards a sense of opportunity. Our research suggests the public are optimistic, more still, they are expectant. The priorities are clear, but delivering change that meets the desires for a cross section of society that can be felt on an individual basis is the ultimate challenge that lies ahead.

To find out more about how H/Advisors Cicero can support your organisation post-election, please get in touch.

[1] Survey conducted via an online methodology 28^th – 30^th June, 1,000 sample nationally representative of age and gender in the UK.

[2] ONS, Cost of living insights: Food, Feb 2024

[3] BBC, Rent prices: How much have they gone up in your area, Mar 2023