The real test of the Starmer Government

Former Deputy Prime Minister, and H/Advisors Cicero Senior Counsel, Sir David Lidington, shares his views on the key domestic and international challenges facing Keir Starmer’s Government in 2025.

This is an extract from Sir David’s full analysis provided to H/Advisors Cicero clients.

As we enter the new year, Keir Starmer and his revamped Number 10 team see three goals as essential to their hopes of reelection in 2028 or 2029: rising living standards; improved NHS services, and effective controls on immigration.

As President Joe Biden’s record shows, it won’t be enough for official statistics to improve – changes must be ones that voters notice. Starmer and Rachel Reeves are pinning their hopes on higher economic growth, but the chances of that depend significantly on international developments. 2025 will mark the real test of the Starmer Government. Voters will expect to start to see progress on some of the main stated goals of the Labour Government and have the opportunity to punish them at the ballot box if they aren’t satisfied.

Health and homes

• Building back better With growth forecasts for 2025 dire and business confidence low, the Government is pinning its hopes for growth on a major reform of planning and a massive construction programme. But it’s hard to see this having much material impact before 2026.
• A healthy start to 2025 With the NHS, the test will be whether Wes Streeting is allowed by his Cabinet and Party colleagues to get serious about reform and whether he (and Starmer) have the skill and political steel to drive Whitehall and NHS leaders to deliver what they want.

Boats and ballots

• The boat that stopped On immigration, 2025 will see Starmer continuing to adopt hard-line language and efforts, both bilaterally and in conjunction with other European countries, to negotiate return agreements for both unlawful immigrants and foreign prisoners.
• Back at the ballot box Local elections in May 2025 will be the first big electoral test since the General Election.

The international economic scene

• While challenges mount at home, Starmer can’t expect international relations to be smooth sailing either. Donald Trump’s Presidency offers major risks, but also potential opportunities for the British Government.

Climate and conflict

• Things can only get hotter For Starmer, alignment with the EU Climate Border Adjustment Mechanism represents low-hanging fruit in his efforts to “re-set” UK/EU relations.
• War and peace In the event of a truce in Ukraine, there are strong rumours that Trump will demand, as a condition for continuing US commitment to NATO, that the Alliance set a target for defence spending of 5% of GDP for every ally.

Reasons to be cheerful

• Security and technology Starmer may use the close alignment of UK and US security interests to push for a bilateral or Five-Eyes pact to establish common regulatory standards and technology sharing arrangements on AI, quantum and other new technologies.

Speak to our Public Affairs team for further insights in 2025: ukpublicaffairs@h-advisors.global