25 April 2024

On 2 May, voters across the country will head to the polls for the local elections, casting their ballots to shape the future of their communities. With a General Election anticipated later this year and so much at stake for political parties, we delve into the key factors that decide local elections, the impact of local campaigning, and how to win.

What factors decide local elections?

There are five key factors at play in the outcome of local elections:

1. Governing party performance: The popularity (or lack thereof) of a Governing party significantly influences the outcome of local elections in England. Opposition parties can tend to do well as voters let out their frustrations at the ballot box. The Conservatives fell victim to this trend in 2023 when they lost over 1,000 seats and the Labour Party became the largest party in local government.
2. Strength of the local campaign: Local elections are not just mini versions of national contests; they have unique dynamics and seats which can be won or lost by single figures. In a local campaign, the candidate’s visibility and engagement with the local community supported by a strong understanding of local issues, is essential to moving the needle. 
3. Visibility and engagement: Parties and candidates must be visible and active in the weeks and months leading up to the election. Knocking on doors, attending community events, and engaging with residents’ issues. Voters want to see their potential representatives actively participating in local life.
4. Local issues: While national policies matter, local elections can be won or lost due to hyper-local issues. Is there a pothole-ridden road that irks residents? Or perhaps green belt land that needs protecting? Candidates who address these specific concerns resonate with voters and will be rewarded at the ballot box.
5. Amount of Tactical Voting: The extent to which tactical voting takes place varies around the country. In the South West, local people who may prefer to vote Labour at the General Election often support the Liberal Democrats in local elections believing that they are more the most competitive “anti-Tory” party in the area. Independent or Resident Association candidates can also do well if they have a significant profile and are well-liked in the local community.  

Read Alice Perry’s account of what happens when you win your local election

When can local campaigning make a difference?

“Can I move the needle in a local election campaign?” It’s a question every local election candidate asks themselves and sometimes the answer is “no”. Perhaps the incumbent has done great things for the ward, won hearts, and become the neighbourhood hero, leaving you with little room to compete. In another scenario, the incumbent political party might have campaigned relentlessly in the local area and left you without the time or the resources to change the narrative.

Sometimes, however, the stars align, and the right circumstances are in place for a local candidate to unseat an incumbent:

• Untouched issues: There are issues of consequence to the local electorate that haven’t been addressed by the incumbent.
• Party competitiveness: The political party you represent is competitive in the ward in which you’re standing in. This can be gauged from previous electoral results in the area. 
• Local appetite: Local party members are up for the campaign and eager to work hard to see you elected.
• Polling acceptably: The political party you’re attached to is popular with the general public and riding high in national polls.

Under such circumstances running a good local campaign can get you elected (if you’ve got the stamina). But it’s important to remember that everything can change quickly in politics and so much depends on what the month before the election looks like from a national perspective. No matter how much planning or door-knocking you’ve done, a scandal in Westminster always has the potential to derail the best local election campaign.

2024 Local Elections: What are we anticipating?

The last time these council seats and mayoralties were last in contention was 2021, three Prime Ministers ago and at a time when the Conservatives were ahead in the polls. Now everything has changed. The Conservatives are trailing behind Labour by 20 points and have lost 10 Parliamentary by-elections. Smaller parties, like the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Reform are polling well and hoping to increase their share of local government seats.

Conservatives

The Conservatives are expecting to lose big, with Rishi Sunak’s allies regarding this as the most dangerous moment for the Prime Minister before the General Election. Chatter has turned to whether the results will be so bad, that a vote of no confidence or leadership challenge follows and leads to the removal of another Prime Minister. 

Labour

Labour has a lot to gain. The local elections are another opportunity for the party to road test its campaigning and digital machine and pump-up activists to build momentum before the General Election. Labour is defending just under 1,000 council seats and there will be questions for the party to answer if this share doesn’t grow on 2 May.

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats will use the local elections to make inroads in 20 target seats for the General Election across the southeast and southwest. The party will try to capitalise on tactical voting emphasising that they are the best party to challenge the Conservatives in areas like Surrey and Somerset.

Reform

Reform poses a threat to the Conservatives for the mayoral elections and to a limited extent, for the local elections. New polling for the West Midlands shows Reform is polling in third place with 13%, Conservatives at 28% and Labour at 42%. The Conservatives risk losing votes across multiple races to Reform and will want to hammer home to voters: Vote Reform, Get Labour.

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