30 April 2025

Labour seeks stability, Tories brace for losses, and Reform eyes breakthrough

Local elections are typically seen as a litmus test for the government of the day. However, in 2025, commentators are viewing these local elections as a litmus test for the state of British politics. On 1^st May, the UK will see the smallest number of council seats contested since 1975, with the English Devolution White Paper resulting in the postponement of elections in nine council areas. But, the significance of these elections could be far from small.

Current polling suggests a highly competitive race, with 1,641 councillors to be elected across 23 councils: 14 county councils, 8 unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough. Doncaster, the sole metropolitan borough in this cycle, will elect all 55 councillors and its mayor — a key Labour defence. Four combined authority areas will also hold mayoral elections, including inaugural votes in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire, which will be a priority target for Reform UK. The Runcorn & Helsby by-election, prompted by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury will also take place on Thursday.

The debate has intensified over the possibility of a Conservative-Reform pact to ‘unite the right’, and whether a coalition should take place on a national level. Despite Leader Kemi Badenoch disputing this would be a possibility in recent months, over the weekend she conceded that deals could be done locally. The rationale for this being that many Reform candidates are defected Tory councillors that will have established relationships on a local level. However, the Tory mayor of Tees Valley Lord Ben Houchen and wannabe conservative leader Robert Jenrick, set their stall out this weekend that a deal with Nigel Farage should be considered on a national level to keep Labour out of office at the next general election. 

Elections taking place on Thursday

For the Government, these elections mark the first opportunity to gauge their local appeal since securing a majority last summer. The Conservatives face a daunting challenge, defending over 900 seats in ‘Tory shires’ won during Boris Johnson’s peak popularity in 2021. These seats are now under siege from both Labour and Reform, with the latter aiming to convert rising poll numbers into tangible gains — winning councillors, gaining control, and solidifying their foothold in the British political landscape.

Whilst the local elections on 1st May presents a pivotal test for both Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader, Nigel Farage faces the ultimate test of credibility among political leaders. Reform UK aims to secure over 200 council seats, focusing on areas like Durham, Doncaster, Lancashire, Kent, and Lincolnshire. Additionally, the Runcorn and Helsby by-election stands as a pivotal goal for Reform, with polls indicating they could snatch victory, raising their total number of MPs to five.

A series of victories nationwide would solidify Reform’s status as a political force, but it would also raise critical questions about Farage’s leadership style and provide a practical test of whether his party is truly equipped to govern.

Labour under pressure 

Labour is cautiously optimistic about the upcoming local elections but is tempering expectations. Historically, Labour has not performed well in most of the areas going to the polls on 1^st May, but having fewer seats at risk means it may avoid significant electoral damage.

Labour’s primary focus is on defending two mayoralties it has held since 2021 – the West of England and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough – and winning the newly created mayoralty for Hull and East Yorkshire. While defending either mayoralty will not be easy, the West of England mayoralty is particularly vulnerable. The outgoing Mayor and MP, Dan Norris, was recently arrested on suspicion of rape and child sex offences, leaving the new candidate and campaigners with difficult questions on the doorstep about what Labour did or did not know about the alleged offences.  

The Liberal Democrats and Greens pose a threat to Labour’s position, having secured significant portions of the vote in the 2021 West of England mayoral election and performing well locally last year. The Greens gained ten council seats and unseated Labour Shadow Minister Thangam Debbonaire in Bristol Central during the General Election. 

The battle for the mayoralty in Hull and East Yorkshire is shaping up as a straight two-way fight between Labour and Reform, and according to Labour polling, they’re neck-and-neck. It is certainly an interesting election between an establishment and non-establishment character. The Reform candidate, Luke Campbell, is a popular local resident and former gold-winning Team GB boxer who is up against the Labour candidate, Margaret Pinder, an experienced policy-focused local politician and solicitor. A Reform win would demonstrate the vulnerability in Labour’s newly reformed “red wall” in the north of England.  

Losing these mayoral elections would be seen as a significant setback for Labour. Given the substantial resources being invested in these campaigns, such losses could highlight a material impact of the Chancellor’s recent fiscal statement and spark criticism of national party policy by Labour activists.

A moment of truth for the Tories

With the most to lose in these local elections, the spotlight is firmly on the Conservative Party’s performance at the ballot box and the future of its leader, Kemi Badenoch. 16 of the 23 county councils, unitary authorities, and metropolitan districts up for election currently have Conservative majorities. 

The last time these council seats were contested was in the aftermath of the pandemic, following Boris Johnson’s successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine. The Tory party achieved their best night for 13 years on the National Equivalent Vote, which works out the national picture based on the local results. Defending the success of 2021 will prove challenging for the Conservatives, who have halved their vote share since 2021, and public sentiment towards the party remains unfavourable. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is fielding candidates in nearly every seat, which risks splitting the Conservative vote and allowing more moderate parties to gain ground. 

The real battle ground for Badenoch will be Kent County Council, which has been Conservative run for most of its existence. Since its creation in1974, it has had a Conservative leader for all but four years when, between 1993 and 1997, the authority was led by joint leaders from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Tory heartlands Staffordshire and Lincolnshire will also prove testing.

Badenoch, who has struggled to gain traction and support since her election, has warned her party that they face “very difficult” local elections, but it is unclear what the outcome could be on Badenoch herself. After a turbulent few years and a rolling door of leaders, it is likely that the Conservative party will want to maintain consistency for now, but whatever the results, the pressure will be on for Badenoch to make some real progress in the coming months.

Reform’s Reckoning: Farage’s Big Test

Reform has emerged as the only party to experience a significant surge in popularity since the 2024 general election. A wave of disillusioned Conservative voters has shifted their allegiance to the party, with few returning to the Tories under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. Farage has described the May elections as the “first major hurdle” on Reform’s path to power, with the party contesting nearly all 1,600 council seats, six metro and single-authority mayoral races, and the Runcorn and Helsby by-election — an ambitious expansion compared to the 2024 local elections.

Reform aims to capitalise on their momentum by targeting council seats in areas traditionally dominated by the Conservatives but where a significant vote share was lost to Reform last July. Opportunities to exploit dissatisfaction with Labour are more limited. However, Farage is determined to unsettle the Government by positioning Reform as the primary challenger to the Conservatives in key regions and threatening Labour’s hold on Doncaster Metropolitan Council.

The party made notable gains in the Lincolnshire County Council area during the general election, securing several second-place finishes and capturing the safest Conservative seat in the country. Recent defections of local councillors to Reform have further bolstered their presence. If the party manages to strip the Tories of their majority — or even take control of the Council — it could solidify their position in Lincolnshire for future elections.

However, whilst a strong showing nationwide would establish Reform as a formidable political force, their ability to govern, if elected, will be a crucial test if they want to be a serious contender in the next general election.  With many questions raised in the past year about Reform’s vetting procedures, May 1^st will bring intense scrutiny to potential Reform mayors and even greater expectations for councils under their leadership.

An opportunity for Liberal Democrats and the Greens

When launching his local election campaign, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, declared his mission to replace the Conservatives as the “party of Middle England”, with the aim of taking second place in local government coverage. The Liberal Democrats have majority control in 37 councils, 12 short of the Conservatives’ current threshold of 49. They’re seeking to build their base in Tory strongholds such as Essex and Kent and other “Tory shires”, including Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire, where recent by-elections have favoured them.

The Liberal Democrats are also going full steam ahead against Reform in the pre-election period, announcing a “Farage fighting fund”. The fund demonstrates a bid to quash the threat from the far-right party in key battlegrounds, including Devon, Cornwall and Shropshire, and has received over £100,000 in donations. Contrastingly, it has been suggested that Reform UK has spent more than £2m on a personalised mailshot campaign to postal voters, leading to Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem deputy leader challenging Farage to be transparent on donations. When it comes to the Liberal Democrat-Reform battle, the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoralty race will be one to watch, with both parties fighting tooth and nail to secure their candidate as the first-ever mayor of the new Combined Authority.

As for the Greens, another party that had much to celebrate after winning four parliamentary seats at the 2024 General Election, a focus remains on incrementally increasing influence in central urban areas. The Greens will be looking to leverage Labour’s welfare reforms and wavering on environmental policy to make further inroads with the disgruntled progressive voter. Their key test will be the mayoral election in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and West of England combined authority. The Greens currently control Bristol Council and have faced criticism of their governance to date amidst rising council taxes and perceived falling services, which could impact their vote share. A reminder to all challenger parties that campaigning for seats is one thing, but governing is something else entirely.

To conclude, the elections on 1^st May could mark a seismic shift in British politics and challenge each party to ask some big questions. Labour might have to assess who their core voters are in 2025, Reform could be forced to contemplate how to govern in practice, and the Conservatives may be forced to ask whether the only way is up.