29 September 2023

Rishi Sunak heads to Manchester for his first Conservative Party Conference as leader with the air of a man who is finally getting to set his own agenda unbound, if still somewhat burdened by the positions of Prime Ministers past. 

Sunak’s party started the month in dire straits, dipping in national polls to below a quarter of the electorate’s preference in one case, and delivering mixed results at recent by-elections. But he heads North with a healthy bounce after taking new policy positions on Net Zero, A-level reforms, and encouraging fresh discussions over tax, multiculturalism, and HS2. 

Opportunities for Prime Minister Sunak

The hope for the party’s strategists is that letting Rishi be his own man will reveal him to the public as someone who fundamentally thinks like the country does. Someone who understands the pressures that people are facing on their finances, and puts practicality above politics – rather than someone who has one eye on the door already, has a nest-egg greater than most could ever dream of, and who is just serving out his time until an already-lost General Election. 

Sunak will benefit from a Conference that is calmer than a year ago, with a lot fewer enemies plotting on the fringes and in the media than Liz Truss had in the wake of her mini-Budget. The Prime Minister’s first Leader’s speech will attempt a rabbit out of the hat – with speculation continuing to swirl around cancelling HS2 after the PM refused repeatedly to rule out reviewing the project – while trying to unite the Conservative Party as they head into what might really be a year-long election campaign.  

There is added impetus for Sunak to make his mark from the fact that this is the first time the Tories have gone before Labour. Conference timings were an unspoken agreement, the governing party goes last, but for reasons unspoken Labour ended up booking theirs for next weekend and will be happy with the ability to have the last word in the public’s minds. 

Tory leadership contenders past, present and future

Who else impresses in Manchester though is still up for grabs. Liz Truss is back, leading a rally on growth with former Home Secretary Priti Patel and former Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg. And it remains to be seen whether Boris Johnson makes himself heard as well either in the city or in the media. A number of aspirant types have their eyes on the future too. Sharp-elbowed ambitious future leaders among the Cabinet will have been invited to lead fringe events with think tanks and campaign groups with a view to cementing their places as natural successors should the ball come loose from the back of the scrum. Among the most billed this year are Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Security Minister Tom Tugendhat, and Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt.   

Potential protests, PPCs and party prospects

Conference goers should expect protests. The People’s Assembly is gathering unions and campaigners on the Sunday for a march, and Just Stop Oil is expected in the city on the Monday. It remains to be seen if they’ll make it inside the Conference secure sone to heckle the Prime Minister as previously managed for both Truss and May, though recent Net Zero announcements have probably raised the stakes. 

For anyone who does make it inside the secure zone, there might not be the greatest number of sitting MPs and Lords in attendance, but this is the Conference where there will be the highest concentration of Prospective Parliamentary Candidates (PPCs). After all, selections for seats are ongoing and plum picks are still to be had – and this could be the last gathering of the party if next year’s election comes in May. We should all be mindful too that while the polls are bad, that could change, and the Conservative Party could still form, on its own, HM Government for the next term. 

There is a new King’s Speech, the Autumn Statement, by-elections and potential policy shifts all in the offing over the next few months. Sunak will hope that Conference is one of the easier engagements of the season, but he is not without his detractors within the party as the events of last year proved. While Sunak seems safe for now, some Conservatives have already resigned themselves to a loss that will open up the party to a fight for its future after the General Election. Sunak and his allies will hope to keep the party faithful focused on winning upcoming votes in Mid-Beds and Tamworth, and convincing us all that he and the Tories are still in charge and in contention.

For more insight into the Conservative Party or to find out what H/Advisors Cicero will be up to at Conference in Manchester, contact Matthew.Kilkoyne@h-advisors.global

February 2024

The H/Advisors Cicero Poll Tracker tracks the average of voting intention polls published each month since January 2023. Looking back at the last 12 months, it is a picture of striking consistency. While Labour’s average rating has dipped a little from an average of 47% in January 2023 to 45% this January, their lead remains strong with the Conservatives also having dipped marginally.

There was relatively little fluctuation across all the main parties, although these UK-wide surveys conceal some interesting changes such as the amount of ground Labour has made up in Scottish polls relative to the SNP. Another notable feature is the gradual improvement of Reform UK’s polling position, beginning this year at an average of 10% having started last year on average of just 6%. We will be updating this polling tracker regularly and monitoring closely for significant movements.

To get in touch email simon.fitzpatrick@h-advisors.global

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This Cookie Policy contains information on what cookies are, the type of cookies used by HAVAS S.A on the website https://cicero-group.com and the purpose of such use, and your choices regarding cookies.

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Cicero Group Privacy Notice

The Cicero Group (“we”) are committed to protecting your privacy.

This notice (together with any terms of use on our website and any other documents referred to in this notice) sets out the basis on which any personal data we collect from you, that you provide to us, or that we obtain about you from other sources, will be processed by us.  Please read the following carefully to understand our views and practices regarding your personal data and how we will treat it. By visiting any of our websites you are accepting and consenting to the practices described in this policy – if you do not wish to agree to these terms, please do not visit our websites.

The Cicero Group comprises Cicero Consulting Ltd, a company incorporated in England and Wales under registered number 04071207 with its registered office at Havas House, Hermitage Court, Hermitage Lane, Maidstone, Kent, ME16 9NT, United Kingdom, along with all of its group undertakings as defined in s1161(5) of the UK Companies Act 2006, wherever in the world they may be situated.

For the purposes of the Data Protection Act 1998 until 24 May 2018 and thereafter the General Data Protection Regulation (Regulation (EU 2016/679)) as amended or replaced from time to time (“Data Protection Law”), each operating company in the Cicero Group (i.e. excluding non-trading and dormant undertakings), may be a joint data controller in respect of data processed by each other operating undertaking. References to “we” in this notice are therefore references to the relevant member of the Cicero Group. According to Data Protection Law an individual may exercise his or her rights against each or any joint data controllers.

Our Data Protection Manager for the purpose of Data Protection Law is Judith Becker, Chief Operating Officer, contactable at the above address or via email.

1 Information collected about you

We will collect and process the following data about you:

1.1 Information you give us

This is information about you that you give us by filling in forms on our websites or by corresponding with us by phone, e-mail or otherwise. It includes information you provide when you register to use our websites, subscribe to our service, details from your email signature, register to receive Cicero analyses, register to trial Cicero services, and when you report a problem with our websites. The information you give us may include your name, address, telephone number, mobile number, email address, office address, job title and the organisation you work for, as necessary for us to do what we need to do. Other information that may be needed from time to time to process a request may also be collected, as indicated on our websites.

1.2 Information we collect about you

With regard to each of your visits to our websites we will automatically collect some or all of the following information:

• technical information (see section 2 below);
• information about your visit (see section also 3 below), for example the website URLs you have engaged with and the amount of time spent on these pages (including date and time), page response times, length of visits to certain pages, page interaction information (such as scrolling, clicks, and mouse-overs), methods used to browse away from the page, forms you have completed, and any phone number used to call our customer service number.

1.3. Information we receive from other sources.

This is information we receive about you from sources other than directly from yourself, which may include partner organisations and Cicero clients. We work closely with third parties (including, for example, business partners, sub-contractors in technical, payment and delivery services, advertising networks, analytics providers, search information providers, credit reference agencies).

2. IP Address Lookup

Our company uses third parties to provide information about visitors to our websites – see https://cicero-group.com/cookie-policy. When you visit our websites we will record your IP address. This address will be matched against public and proprietary IP address databases to provide us with information about your visit. This information may identify the organisation to whom the IP address is registered but not individuals. In some limited cases i.e. single person companies, it may be possible to identify personal data from publicly available ICANN data.

3. Website cookies and link tracking

Cookies allow us to provide important site functionality so you don’t have to re-enter lots of information. They also allow us to remember what links and pages have been clicked or viewed during a session. If you have provided us with personal data, completing a contact form for example, we may associate this personal data with other information. This will allow us to identify and record what is most relevant to you.

By using your browser controls, you are always in control of the cookies we store and access on your computer. More information on how to control cookies and limit personal data processing can be found at www.youronlinechoices.com/uk/five-top-tips

You can view our cookie policy in more detail by following this link.

4. Purpose of processing

If you request information from us, by submitting your email address for the purpose of that request, we may send you appropriate and useful communications regarding Cicero, our services and other items we think may be of interest to you. This includes, but is not limited to; invitations to our industry leading events and webinars, our latest assets (whitepapers, guides, reports, infographics, videos and case studies) and promotional offers on software and services. We would also like to keep you abreast of the charity events and initiatives we partake in. We will also use your information to fulfil your original information request.

If you are a customer of Cicero Pulse, you will potentially receive daily email alerts relating to the preferences you have set up in the system dashboard. We also send a newsletter, sent approximately once a month, in addition to regular event invitations and pieces of informative analysis.

At any time, you can update your preferences for our marketing emails by clicking the link in any emails you receive from us. The link will always be in the footer of the email. You can also stop receiving emails from us using that same link. If you don’t have an email from us to hand and want to update your preferences, please email us requesting to be unsubscribed from Cicero marketing.

5. Disclosure of your information

5.1. We may share your personal information:
5.1.1.  with any of our group undertakings, as defined in section 1161(5) of the UK Companies Act 2006, provided that they (a) are within the European Economic Area, or (b) are in a country that the European Union has decided has adequate data protection laws in place, or (c) have provided appropriate data protection safeguards of the sort approved by the European Union and provide effective rights and remedies for you. Any use by other group members of one group member’s personal data beyond administration will be subject to all the requirements of Data Protection Law.

5.1.2. with selected third parties where reasonably necessary for the purpose of carrying out our business, including:

• business partners, suppliers and sub-contractors for the performance of any contract we enter into with them or you;
• analytics and search engine providers that assist us in the improvement and optimisation of our websites;

5.2. Additionally, we may disclose your personal information to third parties:

5.2.1. In the event that we sell or buy any business or assets, in which case we may disclose your personal data to the prospective seller or buyer of such business or assets.
5.2.2. If we or a substantial part of our assets are acquired by a third party, in which case personal data held by us about our customers may be one of the transferred assets.
5.2.3. If we are under a duty to disclose or share your personal data in order to comply with any legal obligation, or in order to enforce or apply the terms of any contract between us or any other agreements; or to protect the rights, property, or safety of the Cicero group, our customers, or others. This includes exchanging information with other companies and organisations for the purposes of fraud protection and credit risk reduction.

6. Legal basis of processing

6.1 Data Protection law requires us to meet at least one “legal ground” for processing, currently set out in Article 6 of the General Data Protection Regulation. The grounds applicable to the personal data to which this notice relates are as follows.

6.1.1. Where the processing is necessary for us to perform a contract that you are party to, or to take steps at your request prior to entering a contract, including where you request us to provide you with some information, that is the ground on which we are processing that data;

6.1.2. Where the processing is necessary for compliance with a legal obligation to which we are subject, that is the ground on which we are processing that data;

6.1.3. Where processing is necessary for the purposes of our legitimate interests or the legitimate interests of a third party, that is the ground on which we are processing that data, provided that your fundamental rights and freedoms which require protection of your data override those legitimate interests (our legitimate interests comprise the management, marketing and promotion of our business, products and services, and those of our clients);

6.1.4. If you have given your consent to our processing the data, that is the basis on which we are processing that data.

If more than one of the above grounds apply to the processing of data in question, the applicable ground will be the one that is set out first above. If one of the above grounds ceases to apply to the processing of data in question, but other grounds continue to apply, we will be entitled to continue processing pursuant to the next applicable ground.

7. Special categories of personal data

If you provide us with any special categories of personal data (that is to say information as to racial or ethnic origin, political opinions, religious or philosophical beliefs, trade union membership, physical or mental health, sex life or sexual orientation or genetic or biometric data) or personal data relating to criminal convictions and offences, it is a condition of us receiving that information that you expressly consent (and you hereby do) to us processing that personal data for the purposes set out in clause 4.

8. Where we store your personal data

8.1. We, or our contractors, will store your personal data in the European Economic Area save to the extent specified elsewhere in this notice.
8.2. All information you provide to us is stored on our secure servers. Any payment transactions will be encrypted using SSL technology. Where we have given you (or where you have chosen) a password which enables you to access certain parts of our websites or services, you are responsible for keeping this password confidential, and for all use made of your account with such password. We ask you not to share a password with anyone.
8.3. Unfortunately, the transmission of information via the internet is not completely secure. Although we will do our best to protect your personal data, we cannot guarantee the security of your data transmitted to our websites; any transmission is at your own risk. Once we have received your information, we will use strict procedures and security features to try to prevent unauthorised access.

9. Length of data storage

Our policy is to ensure that personal data is only stored for as long as is necessary for the purposes set out at section 4 above. This may vary according to the type of information and the specific applicable purpose(s). We have a detailed data retention and destruction policy which governs the length of time for which we hold your data in personally identifiable form. The timing of our retention, anonymisation and/or destruction of your personal data is determined according to the criteria set out in that policy. We can provide you with relevant details applicable to your data on request – please see section 10.2 below as to how to request this information.

10. Your rights

10.1. You have various rights under Data Protection Law. These include:
10.1.1. The right to ask us not to process your personal data for direct marketing purposes, even if you have given consent;
10.1.2. If our processing is based on your consent, the right to withdraw any consent you may have given for our processing of your data – if you exercise this right, we will be required to stop such processing if consent is the sole lawful ground on which we are processing that data;
10.1.3. The right to ask us for access to the data we hold about you (see section 10 below for further details);
10.1.4. The right to ask us to rectify any data that we hold about you that is inaccurate or incomplete;
10.1.5. The right to ask us to delete your data in certain circumstances;
10.1.6. The right to ask us to restrict our processing of your data in certain circumstances;
10.1.7. The right to object to our processing of your data in certain circumstances, including in respect of certain of the activities mentioned at section 3 above;
10.1.8. In certain circumstances, the right to require us to give you the data we hold about you in a structured, commonly used and machine-readable format so that you can provide the data to another data controller.
10.2. You can exercise any of the rights set out above, free of charge, by using any applicable methods set out in our communications with you, or by contacting us at dataprotection@cicero-group.com. In respect of certain of the rights referred to above, your right may be qualified by Data Protection Law (which we will discuss with you following your request) or we may need more information from you, which we will ask you for following your request. We may ask you to provide further information in order to confirm your identity. Please also note that if you submit unfounded or excessive (for example repetitive) requests to exercise any of these rights, we reserve the right to make a reasonable charge for providing the requested information or taking the requested action, or to decline your request.
10.3. You also have the right to lodge a complaint with the Information Commissioner’s Office (www.ico.org.uk) if you are concerned that we are not respecting your rights under Data Protection Law. The Information Commissioner’s Office is the authority in the UK which is responsible for overseeing the application of, and enforcing, Data Protection Law.

11. Accessing your data

To expand on the right to access your data referred to at section 9.1.3 above, you have the right to obtain from us:
11.1. Confirmation as to whether we are processing (including holding) personal data about you; and
11.2. If we are processing personal data about you, you are entitled to be provided with:
11.2.1. Information as to the purposes for which we process the data;
11.2.2. Information as to the categories of the data that we are processing;
11.2.3. Information as to the recipients or categories of recipients to whom the data has or will be disclosed;
11.2.4. Information as to the envisaged period for which we will store the data, or if the basis on which that period will be determined;
11.2.5. A copy of the data (further copies are available at a reasonable charge, which we will inform you of should you request further copies). Please note that this right is subject to the rights of others in relation to their own personal data, meaning that we may not be able to disclose data to you if it would involve disclosing data about someone else.
11.3. Please see section 9.2 above as to how to exercise your rights under this section 10. Section 10.2 applies in full to the exercise of these rights.

12. Other websites

Our websites may, from time to time, contain links to and from the websites of our partner networks, clients, advertisers and affiliates. If you follow a link to any of these websites, please note that these websites have their own privacy policies and that we do not accept any responsibility or liability for these policies. Please check these policies before you submit any personal data to these websites.

13. Changes to our privacy policy

Any changes we make to our privacy policy in the future will be posted on this page. Please check back frequently to see any updates or changes to our privacy policy.

14. Contact

Questions, comments and requests regarding this privacy policy are welcomed and should be emailed to the support team.

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