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Cicero was delighted to welcome Tim Montgomerie, Columnist at the Times, and Mark Palmer, Chief Operating Officer, Hamilton Court FX, for a panel event discussing the US Presidential election.

Speakers agreed that a Trump victory looks increasingly unlikely, with his campaign badly damaged by the leaking of recent recordings that allege serious inappropriate behaviour. Montgomerie argued that while the Democrats look set to claim the Senate they are still unlikely to win the House of Representatives, however this result could actually be beneficial to Hillary Clinton, he noted. As a centrist Democrat she could then blame Republicans for blocking reform, rather than being forced to pander to the left wing of the Democrat party riding a crest from the support of presidential candidate Bernie Sanders. As Trump falters their chances of claiming the House do rise, he admitted.

The immediate consequence of a Trump victory would ironically be an influx of money into the dollar, Palmer argued, given its status as a liquid, global reserve currency. Longer-term markets would be more likely to suffer, with the potential emergence of a second worldwide reserve currency in anticipation of an unsteady Trump presidency. He also noted that markets are currently pricing in a Clinton victory but, with the two least popular candidates in history and a rising anti-politics sentiment, they still lack the data to make a truly informed decision about who will win the election.

Factors working against Hillary include a deep dissatisfaction with the direction that the country is taking, Montgomerie argued, with 66 per cent of Americans saying their country is going in the wrong direction and only 1 per cent believing that the people behind the financial crash had been adequately punished for its consequences. Political revolutions typically take place in the years after seismic events such as the crash, he said, with a Clinton Presidency highly unlikely to appease those unhappy with the state of their country.

Cicero also recorded a video piece with the speakers summarising the discussion, which can be accessed in the player above.

Kate Andrews, a representative of the Republicans Overseas in the UK group, had also been scheduled to speak on this panel but unfortunately was unable to attend due to Eurostar trains being suspended following a power fault.

This discussion was chaired by Cicero’s Executive Chairman, Iain Anderson, who temporarily donned his own red baseball cap emblazed with the phrase ‘DonT’ denoting his political affiliations.

Interested in attending similar events? Please do get in touch to be invited to upcoming Cicero sessions.

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